- AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day amid subdued US Dollar price action.
- Bets that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June keep the USD bulls on the defensive.
- The upbeat Chinese Trade Balance also lend support, though a softer risk tone might cap gains.
The AUD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and climbs back closer to the 0.6600 mark during the early part of the European session. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the recent recovery from the 0.6480-0.6475 area, or a multi-week low touched on Tuesday amid subdued US Dollar (USD) demand.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near its lowest level since early February amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday, told lawmakers that the central bank will cut interest rates this year if there is more evidence that inflation is falling to the 2% target. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, however, downplayed bets for a more aggressive policy easing and said that he may reduce the number of cuts in 2024, to only one in the wake of the incoming stronger macro data.
The mixed signals, meanwhile, limit the downside for the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, could act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback. That said, China's stronger export and import growth in the January-February period, to a larger extent, helps offset the negative factor and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. Traders now look to Fed Chair Powell's second day of testimony, which, along with the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data, will drive the USD, though the focus remains glued to the US NFP report on Friday.
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