AUD/USD: eyes on the 50-D SMA, 0.7493

  • The dollar was firmer and left the antipodeans out to dry.
  • The 50 dma at the 0.75 handle is now in site but ... 

AUD/USD has been consolidating above the descending channel's prior resistance and between the 50 and 21-D SMAs. The pair has recovered from the Asian and European sell-off down to 0.7430 and moved back up to 0.7481 in NY's risk-on session, (S&P 500 through June 12th highs). 

AUD/USD managed to climb in early Asia yesterday, making a high of 0.7483, meeting early NY's high before a late Asian slide as Europea traders got on board, risk -off on global tensions when ZEW dumped -24.7. Trade risks are simmering away in the background and the Aussie is sensitive to the Chinese yuan's poor performance. The dollar was firmer and left the antipodeans out to dry. 

IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at July 3rd, 2018

"AUD net short positioning continues to decline as AUD/USD rallied off the 18mth low observed at the start of July. The 50 dma at the 0.75 handle is now in site but global trade tensions and steady monetary policy make it hard to become too bullish of AUD," analysts at Rabobank explained. 

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD is consolidating the moves above the channel, correcting higher. Analysts at Commerzbank argued that the Elliott wave count and 13 count continue to indicate that the move to 0.7315 was the end of the down move; they would allow for a deeper corrective rebound very near term. "Rallies have eroded initial resistance at the 0.7443 22nd June high and we look for gains to the downtrend at 0.7582." However, should China stumble again, bears would be aiming for a complete unwind of the two-year year-long reflation trade would keep the downside open towards the 0.72 handle. Beyond there, we have the 0.7140 double bottom lows on a weekly basis. 
 

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