AUD/USD eases from intraday top below 0.7800 on RBA’s Lowe, eyes China data

  • AUD/USD drops from day’s high as RBA’s Lowe reiterates cautious optimism.
  • RBA’s Lowe expects some more time before reaching inflation, employment goals.
  • Risks benefit from comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, US President Biden amid mixed feelings for vaccines.
  • January’s China Retail Sales, Industrial Production can help recover the latest losses but risk catalysts will test the bulls.

AUD/USD steps back from an intraday high of 0.7763 to 0.7758 after RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech during the early Monday’s Asian session. Although RBA’s Lowe tried to sell the Aussie government’s policies, his comments over inflation and employment seem to have weighed on the quote off-late. Also testing the pair buyers could be the mixed signals from the risk catalysts as well as cautious mood ahead of China data.

While delivering opening remarks to the Melbourne Business Analytics Conference, RBA’s Lowe signaled that the central bank will maintain the support to battle the pandemic until they achieve goals for full employment and inflation. The RBA Boss also said, “The result has been a quicker and stronger economic recovery than was expected. This, however, does not hide the fact that we still have a long way to go.”

Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the readiness to tame bond bears if needed while accepting the short-term upside in rates. However, the diplomat rejected reflation fears. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden praised last week’s virtual meet between the US, Japan, India and Australia.

It should be noted that the Netherlands’ suspension of AstraZeneca vaccine usage until March 29 battles the drugmaker's rejection of any such finding in the latest tests to challenge the risks.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.20% intraday gains while stocks in Asia-Pacific look towards China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production for fresh clues.

While upbeat expectations from Chinese figures can help the AUD/USD prices, US dollar strength and US Treasury yields may test the bulls ahead of this week’s key FOMC meeting.

Technical analysis

January’s top and monthly high, respectively around 0.7820 and 0.7835, test immediate upside when a clear break above the two-week-old resistance line, now support, favors AUD/USD bulls to battle 21-day SMA, at 0.7785 now.

Additional important levels

Today last price 0.776
Today Daily Change -3 pips
Today Daily Change % -0.04%
Today daily open 0.7763
Daily SMA20 0.7787
Daily SMA50 0.7741
Daily SMA100 0.7563
Daily SMA200 0.7335
Previous Daily High 0.7801
Previous Daily Low 0.7724
Previous Weekly High 0.7801
Previous Weekly Low 0.762
Previous Monthly High 0.8008
Previous Monthly Low 0.7562
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7754
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7772
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7724
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7686
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7648
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7801
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7839
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7877



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