- AUD/USD rose to a 5-day high towards 0.6465 and threatened the 20-day SMA of 0.6475.
- Markets are now pricing in rate cuts by the Fed in June 2024.
- All eyes are now on US and Australia's mid- and high-tier economic data to be released this week.
The AUD/USD soared by 0.60% to the 0.6465 level, mainly driven by a USD weakness fueled by poor labour market figures from the US and markets consequently betting on sooner rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). On the AUD’s side, investors await housing data from Australia from July to be released Wednesday and the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July.
The USD took a hit after the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) declined to 8.82 million, lower than the market's expectations of 9.465 million. It is worth noticing that the labour market situation will highly determine the short-term USD trajectory as Federal Reserve officials and Jerome Powell stated that ongoing decisions will be decided “carefully”, pointing out that the labour market is still unbalanced. That said, markets could see volatility during this week when the US reports the ADP Employment Change from August on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report from the same month.
The US Treasury yields for the 2, 5 and 10-year bond sharply decreased, reflecting dovish bets on the Federal Reserve. In line with that, World Interest Rates Probabilities (WIRP) show that markets are still betting on high chances of a 25 bps hike in November but have pushed back rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from July to June.
AUD/USD Levels to watch
Based on the daily chart, AUD/USD maintains a neutral to bullish technical perspective, indicating that the bulls are making strides in regaining control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows an upward trend below its midline, suggesting a potential resurgence of bullish strength, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram prints bigger green bars. Moreover, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the buyers are struggling to overcome the overall bearish trend, and the bears are still in charge.
Support levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6380.
Resistance levels: 0.6475 (20-day SMA), 0.6500, 0.6525.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
-638289306559579719.png)
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD finds fresh demand, nears 1.1100 ahead of US data
EUR/USD has found fresh demand and closes in on 1.1100 in the European session on Friday. The pair builds on the previous recovery amid extended US Dollar weakness and a cautiously optimistic market mood. Traders digest the less dovish ECB policy decision ahead of the US sentiment data.
GBP/USD consolidates gains near 1.3150 amid notable USD supply
GBP/USD is consolidating recovery gains while trading near 1.3150 in the European session on Friday. Despite a tepid risk tone, the pair capitalizes on increased bets for an outsized Fed rate cut, which continue to weigh on the US Dollar. US UoM Consumer Sentiment data awaited.
Gold gets lift as media revives debate over Fed rate cuts
Gold is exchanging hands in the high $2,560s on Friday, trading about 0.40% higher on the day after posting new record highs on Thursday when it broke decisively out of a range it had been oscillating in since it peaked on August 20.
Bitcoin and Ethereum traders could watch this signal for the next bull run
Crypto mining is the process by which new Bitcoin and Ethereum enter circulation. Data from crypto intelligence tracker shows that wallets of Bitcoin and Ethereum miners noted a decline in their holdings of the assets in the first half of the year.
European Central Bank widely expected to cut interest rates in September
The European Central Bank is expected to cut key rates by 25 bps at the September policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s presser and updated economic forecasts will be closely scrutinized for fresh policy cues.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.