AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Drops back to 100-SMA, weekly support despite softer New Zealand inflation

AUD/NZD drops 40 pips even as New Zealand Q2 CPI defends RBNZ status quo.
New Zealand Q2 CPI eases to 1.1% QoQ, 6.0% YoY.
Overbought RSI also favored sellers but 100-SMA, rising trend line from Monday prod bears.
61.8% Fibonacci retracement, seven-week-old descending support line challenge sellers; bulls need validation from 200-SMA.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

AUD/NZD fails to justify downbeat New Zealand inflation numbers on early Wednesday as it slumps to 1.0790 following the data, before recovering to 1.0815 by the press time. In doing so, the exotic pair also takes clues from the overbought RSI while bouncing off the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line stretched from Monday.

That said, New Zealand’s (NZ) headline inflation, per the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edges lower to 1.1% QoQ and 6.0% YoY for the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 versus 1.2% and 6.7% respective priors.

Also read: New Zealand Q2 CPI eases to 1.1% QoQ, NZD/USD marches to 0.6300

It should be noted that the bullish MACD signals and the return of the RSI to the normal region, between 70 and 30, defend the AUD/NZD buyers.

With this, the quote is likely to challenge the latest peak of around 1.0860 before eyeing the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 1.0890.

However, the 1.0900 round figure and a broad horizontal resistance area established since early June, around 1.0915-30, will be crucial for the AUD/NZD bulls to cross afterward if they want to keep the reins.

On the flip side, the 100-SMA and the aforementioned support line restrict immediate AUD/NZD downside near 1.0800-795, a break of which can drag the quote toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May-June upside, near 1.0750.

Following that, a descending trend line from May 30, close to 1.0730 at the latest, will act as the last defense of the AUD/NZD buyers.

AUD/NZD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Recovery expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.0816
Today Daily Change	0.0039
Today Daily Change %	0.36%
Today daily open	1.0777

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0832
Daily SMA50	1.0823
Daily SMA100	1.079
Daily SMA200	1.0831

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0782
Previous Daily Low	1.0725
Previous Weekly High	1.0832
Previous Weekly Low	1.0726
Previous Monthly High	1.1062
Previous Monthly Low	1.0796
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.076
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0747
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0741
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0704
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0683
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0798
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0819
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0856

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD strengthens to near 1.3350 as cooling US labor market weighs US Dollar

The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3350 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar edges lower against the British Pound on a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The US markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

EUR/USD softens below 1.1450 as softer Eurozone inflation trims ECB hike bets

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1420 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by a soft Eurozone inflation outlook. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro despite disappointing US June labor data. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak later on Friday.

Gold needs a weekly closing above $4,165 to sustain the recovery

Gold builds on post-US NFP gains early Friday, sitting at eight-day highs just shy of $4,200. The US Dollar eyes a weekly loss amid easing Fed rate hike bets and the USD/JPY sell-off. Gold’s technical setup suggests a ‘sell-on-bounce’ trade amid bearish RSI and Death Cross.

Bitcoin whale deposits rise as exchange inflows flash bearish warning — CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is facing renewed downside risks after exchange inflows surged to levels rarely seen this year, signaling the market could be entering another period of heightened volatility, according to a report by CryptoQuant on Thursday. The report noted that the $60,000 level remains a decisive support zone despite Bitcoin establishing a fresh bear market low below $58,000 earlier in the week.

Economics week ahead

Market attention turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting made clear that policymakers are split on whether rate hikes are warranted, but with forward guidance getting tamped down under Chair Warsh, the Fed's reaction function remains uncertain in terms of what exactly would build broader support for more restrictive policy.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.