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AUD/NZD bulls capped on central bank divergence sentiment

  • AUD/NZD is firmer following Tuesday's GDP report. 
  • Central bank divergence between RBNZ / RBA keeps a lid on recovery. 

AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0426 and between a low of 1.0410 and 1.0429.

Both nations are experiencing a rise in covid cases but the Aussie is lagging the kiwi due to central bank divergences.

While there is a rise in cases in New Zealand, it is not something that analysts believe will derail OCR hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 

in contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce a delay in the planned reduction of its weekly bond purchases next week.

''An alternative choice is to continue with taper, but delay the next review until February. We think a simple delay is much easier to communicate than this alternative,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

''We would emphasise that this decision is likely to be a close call.''

Meanwhile, last month, Melbourne marked 200 days of lockdown since the pandemic began and is in the midst of its sixth lockdown.

New local cases jumped to 120 in Victoria from 76 a day earlier. Of the new cases, 100 have spent time in the community while infectious.

Victorians have also been subjected to an extended lockdown due to a Delta outbreak and Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday conceded Melbourne was likely to be subjected to "very significant restrictions" for several weeks.

The delta risks have dampened yesterday's Gross Domestic Product beat for they will play into the third-quarter numbers. 

Meanwhile, the Aussie may enjoy some relief in the current weakness in the greenback. 

On Wednesday, the US dollar dropped after the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by 374,000 in August, up from 326,000 in July but well short of the 613,000 forecasts. 

The US dollar, as measured against a basket of currencies in the DXY index ended around 0.13% lower and near to 92.500.

The index had fallen to as low as 92.378 on the day, just points above the structural support of 92.344. 

In Asia, DXY is sat at 92.50 and waits for the next catalyst in Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls and US Consumer Price Index ahead of this month's Federal Reserve meeting.

Weekly chart

Meanwhile, the weekly outlook is compelling.

If this week manages to close as is, then the hanging man could equate to a subsequent bullish structure over time, putting in a floor in this current downtrend from prior weekly support from April.

AUD/NZD

Overview
Today last price1.0427
Today Daily Change0.0007
Today Daily Change %0.07
Today daily open1.042
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0454
Daily SMA501.0565
Daily SMA1001.0659
Daily SMA2001.0691
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0438
Previous Daily Low1.0373
Previous Weekly High1.0534
Previous Weekly Low1.0391
Previous Monthly High1.0592
Previous Monthly Low1.0338
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0413
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0398
Daily Pivot Point S11.0382
Daily Pivot Point S21.0345
Daily Pivot Point S31.0317
Daily Pivot Point R11.0448
Daily Pivot Point R21.0475
Daily Pivot Point R31.0513

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

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