AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Tweezers-top at weekly tops around 82.20 looms as sellers take control

The AUD/JPY downward break at 82.00 exerts selling pressure on the pair.
Dampened market sentiment mood exacerbated demand for the safe-haven JPY.
A tweezers-top near the weekly tops looms and paves the way towards 80.00.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The AUD/JPY slides for the second time in the week, and from a technical perspective, it is forming a tweezers-top candle chart pattern, retreating from weekly tops around 82.27 to the 81.50s region. At the time of writing is trading at 81.55.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

AUD/JPY daily chart, shows that Friday’s price action in the Asian session seesawed around the daily pivot point and February 3 daily high, at 81.89 and 82.27, respectively. However, during the European session, dampened market mood conditions spurred a drop towards 81.32 for a 90-pip fall, stabilizing around the S1 daily pivot at 81.51.

That said, the AUD/JPY remains neutral-bearish biased. Friday’s price action witnessed a downward break of the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 81.58. In the event of a daily close below of it, that will confirm the tweezers-top, which could fuel another leg-down before confirming a bottom.

The AUD/JPY first support would be the February 1 low at 80.89. A downward break would expose the confluence of a bottom-trendline of a bullish-flag and the January 28 daily low at 80.36, followed by the psychological 80.00 barrier.

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	81.55
Today Daily Change	-0.40
Today Daily Change %	-0.49
Today daily open	81.95

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.11
Daily SMA50	81.91
Daily SMA100	82.47
Daily SMA200	82.49

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.29
Previous Daily Low	81.39
Previous Weekly High	82.16
Previous Weekly Low	80.37
Previous Monthly High	84.3
Previous Monthly Low	80.37
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	81.94
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	81.73
Daily Pivot Point S1	81.46
Daily Pivot Point S2	80.97
Daily Pivot Point S3	80.56
Daily Pivot Point R1	82.36
Daily Pivot Point R2	82.77
Daily Pivot Point R3	83.26

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold

The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.