AUD/JPY Price Analysis: The key contention is seen at the 93.00 mark

From a technical perspective, AUD/JPY trades within a descending trend channel line from the middle of June on the four-hour chart. That said, the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY is to the downside as the cross holds below the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The latest data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed on Thursday that Exports declined 0.3% YoY, the first drop in 29 months, with a significant decline in shipments to China. While Imports dipped 13.5%, versus the 14.7% decline expected. Meanwhile, the Japanese trade deficit totaled 78.7 billion yen versus the estimation of a 24.6 billion yen deficit.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) stands in bearish territory, supporting the sellers for now.

The immediate resistance level for AUD/JPY is seen at 94.00 (the 50-hour EMA, a psychological round mark). The next barrier to watch is 94.20 (the 100-hour EMA), en route to 94.60 (the upper boundary of a descending trend channel). Any meaningful follow-through buying above the latter will see a rally to 95.40 (high of July 14).

On the downside, the initial support level to watch is 93.20 (low of July 12). The key contention level is located at 93.00, representing a psychological round figure, a low of August 4. The next downside stop appears at 92.50 (low of July 18), followed by 92.15 (low of June 6). A breach of the latter will see a drop to 91.80 (the lower limit of a descending trend channel).

AUD/JPY four-hour chart