AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish pressure intensifies, sellers eye the 20-day SMA

The daily chart reveals an overall positive trend but indicators took a big hit on Friday.
The hourly RSI hints at a possible short-term upswing following a plunge into the oversold territory.
The pair might side-ways trade to consolidate Friday’s movements..

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 98.60, showing a substantial decrease of nearly 1%. Despite this decline, the broader trend continues to show positivity, with bulls maintaining their control. In addition, as the downward movements might be over-extended, the pair may enter a consolidation phase.

On the daily chart, the technical outlook for the AUD/JPY pair suggests a positive trend. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading resides in the positive territory, aligning with the recent upward momentum. Having peaked near overbought conditions earlier in the week, the RSI has now pulled back to a moderate level, pointing towards potential consolidation. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints a contrasting picture, showing decreasing green bars that signify a slowdown in positive market momentum.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Switching to the hourly chart, the last session's RSI plunged deep into the oversold territory, which could hint at a potential short-term correction upwards. Despite the sharp drop in the RSI, the MACD histogram displays flat green bars, implying stagnating bullish momentum on hourly timeframes.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

The next target for the sellers is the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 98.10. Below that the 100 and 200-day SMAs will act as strong supports in case the downside pressure persists but if the bulls defend this level, the overall trend will remain positive.

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	98.64
Today Daily Change	-0.98
Today Daily Change %	-0.98
Today daily open	99.62

Trends
Daily SMA20	98.09
Daily SMA50	97.63
Daily SMA100	97.25
Daily SMA200	96.08

Levels
Previous Daily High	100.17
Previous Daily Low	99.29
Previous Weekly High	97.97
Previous Weekly Low	96.9
Previous Monthly High	99.06
Previous Monthly Low	95.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	99.63
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	99.83
Daily Pivot Point S1	99.21
Daily Pivot Point S2	98.81
Daily Pivot Point S3	98.33
Daily Pivot Point R1	100.09
Daily Pivot Point R2	100.57
Daily Pivot Point R3	100.97

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 after soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and stays below 1.3400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, making it difficult for the British Pound gather recovery momentum. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1400 as markets focus on geopolitics

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1400 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-impact data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caps the pair's upside. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions.

Gold extends rally as Middle East concerns intensify

Gold extends gains for the fourth consecutive day, standing comfortably above $4,100, unfazed by the risk-off market amid rising tensions in Iran and higher Oil prices. The pair has rallied nearly 2.5% so far this week and is on track for its best weekly performance in more than three months.

XRP consolidates as inflows and volume climb

Ripple (XRP) retains a slightly bullish outlook on Wednesday despite logging a minor correction from the supply range near $1.15. The remittance token is down 0.5% on the day, reflecting a broader cryptocurrency market drawdown, primarily driven by persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East.

US – Fed preview: A divided hold

The first month after Kevin Warsh's debut at the FOMC's June meeting has brought mixed signals on the inflation front. On one hand, the re-escalation of the war in Iran has lifted energy prices higher again. Yet on the other hand, Warsh's hawkish comments have already lifted real rates, supported broad USD and tightened financial conditions while realized inflation surprised to the downside in June.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.