AUD/JPY falls below 100.50 as the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike next month revives

AUD/JPY continues its decline, nearing 100.30 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. This drop is likely due to a stronger Japanese Yen (JPY), following insights from a Reuters survey on expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). According to the survey, 56% of economists anticipate the BoJ will raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by the JPY’s depreciation and improving economic conditions.

Additionally, 90% of economists expect the BoJ to increase rates to 0.50% by the end of March 2025. The median forecast for the terminal rate is 1.00%, with estimates ranging from 0.50% to 2.50%. Furthermore, 96% of economists believe that a potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could prompt the BoJ to hike rates further, as his policies are expected to increase global inflation.

Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to address the Yen's impact on economic and price stability, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes. Additionally, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration is considering a $90 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the burden of rising prices on households.

Recent data indicated that Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a nine-month low of 2.3% year-over-year in October. Similarly, the annual core CPI, which excludes fresh food, also dropped to 2.3%, a six-month low, slightly above the forecast of 2.2%.

Additionally, the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 50.2 in November, up from 49.7 in October, which had marked the lowest level in four months. However, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since March, down from 49.2 in October, missing market expectations of 49.5.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens following the release of mixed Judo Bank PMI data from Australia on Friday. However, the AUD received support from a hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding future interest rate decisions, which could help limit the downside for the AUD/JPY cross.

The Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in November from 47.3 in October, marking its 10th consecutive month of contraction, though the decline slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 49.6 from 51.0, signaling the first contraction in services activity in ten months.