AUD/JPY drops to 74.70 after mixed Aussie Retail Sales/Job Advertisements

With mixed numbers from Australia, AUD/JPY declines to 74.70 during the Asian session on Monday.

Australia’s September month seasonally adjusted (s.a.) Retail Sales matches 0.2% forecast against 0.4% prior while ANZ Job Advertisements for October rose more than -2.9% expectations to -1%, compared to +0.3% prior.

Given the RBA’s heavy emphasis on the job numbers, traders seem to lock recent gains ahead of tomorrow’s monetary policy decision from the Australian central bank.

The pair recently came under pressure as the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s second consecutive absence at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand keep flashing signs that President Trump is less Asia-friendly and doubts the US-China trade deal.

On the economic front, TD Securities Inflation numbers for October failed to offer any clear direction to the pair while standing unchanged at 1.5% YoY and 0.1% MoM.

Amid an absence of Japanese traders and almost no major data/event on the economic calendar, traders will keep an eye over the key risk catalysts, trade/Brexit for near-term direction ahead of the all-important monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), up for publishing on Tuesday. “Markets are pricing 2bp of easing at the 5 Nov RBA meeting, and a terminal rate of 0.56% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%),” says Westpac.

Technical Analysis

200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 75.55and July month high surrounding 76.30 acts as near-term strong resistances to watch during the pair’s further upside. On the contrary, a downside break of a 100-day EMA level of 74.10 could recall early October highs near 73.40/35 on the chart.