AUD/JPY - depressed despite widening yield differential

AUD/JPY recovery struggles to gather traction.
AU-Japan 10-year yield spread rise to 11-month high.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

Wednesday's "long-tailed" doji candle has not yielded a corrective rally in AUD/JPY so far.

The cross was last seen trading in a sideways manner around 84.30 levels, meaning the pair is still down 5.35 percent from the Jan. 23 high of 89.07.

Also, the decline from 89.07 to 84.00 contradicts the widening of the AU-Japan 10-year bond yield spread. As of writing, the spread stands at 283 points - the highest level since March 2017.

Despite oversold conditions and widening yield differential, the recovery in AUD/JPY is struggling to gather traction. Further, Kuroda's reappointment as the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not had any impact on the Yen. Finance Minister Aso ruling out FX intervention is not helping the matters either. Moreover, Yen remains well bid on concerns of a hard landing in the US (due to fiscal profligacy and fears of faster Fed tightening).

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

A break below 84.00 (zero level) could yield re-test of 83.73 (monthly 200-MA) and 83.32 (weekly low). On the other hand, a move above 84.42 (1-hour 50-MA) would open up upside towards 84.70 (1-hour 100-MA) and 85.11 (1-hour 200-MA).

	TREND INDEX	OB/OS INDEX	VOLATILY INDEX
15M	Bearish	Neutral	Shrinking
1H	Bullish	Neutral	Shrinking
4H	Bearish	Neutral	Expanding
1D	Bearish	Neutral	High
1W	Strongly Bearish	Neutral	Expanding
Updated Feb 16, 02:00 GMT

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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