After four years of depreciation, Asian currencies put in a much stronger performance in 2017, points out the research team at ANZ.
Key Quotes
“Our Asian currency index shows a gain of almost 6% year-todate against the USD. The KRW was the strongest performer with a 10.6% appreciation, while the PHP was the worst with a loss of 2% due to a weakening external position. The unwinding of the Trump trade, a strong export recovery in Asia and strong investor risk appetite were behind Asian currency gains this year. China’s move to keep the RMB stable also helped to provide an anchor for the region.”
“How Asian currencies fare in 2018 depends on which of these two contrasting forces will dominate: (i) the effects of policy normalisation in the major advanced economies on global liquidity and ultimately on portfolio flows to Asia; and (ii) a strengthening and broadening in Asian economic growth with export recovery spilling over into domestic demand. We see growth winning out in the end, though the currency moves in the region will be more diffused with growth sensitive currencies outperforming, while high yielding currencies and those with external deficits underperforming.”
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