- BTC/USD fails at $3,900 and gets into dirty ground.
- ETH/USD refuses to lead the market to a new fully bullish scenario.
- XRP/USD presents the worst scenario, with the possibility of a bearish shock.
Yesterday we had a day of climbs, frustrated climbs again and again as they reached the first resistance levels. The three main players in the crypto market move between moving averages and price congestion resistance/support levels. As we will see in the individualized analysis, each case has distinctive characteristics.
What is generalized among the three is the MACD pattern on the four-hour chart. The indicator loses strength just when it has managed to enter the bullish zone of the index. In recent months, this technical situation has led to a lateral phase of consolidation, which has lasted approximately ten days.
After this period of consolidation, where the bearish side may exacerbate the downside, the price has developed in the past a new bullish movement of considerable magnitude.
Do you want to know more about my technical setup?
BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart
The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at the $3,849 price level. After three attempts to conquer the $3,900 price level (price congestion resistance), the bullish inertia is exhausted and now seeks support from the SMA100 at the $3,846 price level.
Below this initial support level, the BTC/USD pair has a second support level of $3,804 (SMA200), a critical price level in the short term since in case of losing it, BTC/USD will not find any support up to $3,700 (SMA200 and congestion support).
Above the current price, the second resistance level for the BTC/USD pair, beyond the first level already mentioned at $3,900, is at $4,050 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level indicates the key area in the medium term at $4,200 (price congestion resistance and relative maximum).
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The MACD on the 4-hour chart was able to enter positive territory yesterday. This fact is very promising for the future development of the price, but in the short term seems to be taking a toll on the effort. The most likely pattern indicates that it can develop a consolidation movement of a little more than a week, then move up sharply.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bulls persisting in their bullish attempt but without making any boasts of their bullish might. The bears continue to retreat to levels that indicate that there is no trend force, and therefore active interest, on the part of the bears to lead the market.
ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart
The ETH/USD is currently trading at the $138.40 price level, after trying twice yesterday to breach the SMA100 at $140.60. The presence reinforces this resistance level at $142 which is a price congestion resistance.
The ETH/USD has its first support level of $135.90 (EMA50), then a second support level of $130.50 (price congestion support) reinforced with the arrival of the SMA200, now at $128. If the XRP/USD loses this support level, a visit to the third support level of $120 (price congestion support) will be unavoidable.
Above the current price and beyond the first resistance level already stated, the second resistance level for the ETH/USD pair is at $150.60 and the third resistance level is at $161.40 (price congestion resistance).
-636875499605465111.png)
The MACD on the 4-hour chart clearly shows the bullish exhaustion that, in the case of the BTC/USD pair, is only intuitive. The fast average flattens quickly and is already moving towards the slow moving average. The pattern tells us that the most likely development is a slightly downward sideways movement.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows that bulls enjoy many advantages over bears. The problem is that the bulls cannot move above the ADX, which weakens all the ability to transfer the bullish potential to the price. The sideways process described above could help lower the level of the ADX and facilitate a new, much more powerful bullish leg.
XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart
The XRP/USD pair is currently trading at the $0.3150 price level, drilling down on the EMA50. If XPR/USD pierces this price level, the second support level to watch is $0.311 (SMA200) while the third support level is $0.308 (price congestion support).
The XRP situation is delicate as it is very close to the short term bullish trend line that originated at the January lows. In case the XRP/USD pair pierces it down, the consequences could be quite severe.
Above the current price, the first resistance level for the XRP/USD is at $0.3170 (price congestion resistance), a level reinforced by the presence of the SMA100 at the $0.319 price level. The second resistance level is at $0.3280 (price congestion resistance), and the third resistance level is at $0.335 (price congestion resistance).
-636875500470971615.png)
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows the same exhaustion profile after entering the bullish zone of the indicator. In the case of XRP, the slow average has yet to cross, indicating more weakness than in the case of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows the bulls losing momentum while the bears gain it. It is a structure that differs quite a lot from the other two assets analyzed.
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