The market still has a significant downside

Market overview

The crypto market cap fell 2.5% in 24 hours to $2.27T. The market was below this level for several hours last Friday, the first time in the past year and a half. Trading remained stable in this range from March to November 2024. The rebound is losing momentum, increasing the likelihood of a retest of last Friday’s lows at $2.2T, potentially followed by a further 10% decline toward the $2.0T level.

Bitcoin has fallen below $67K, recording its third daily bearish candle. Of the more than 20% rebound from Friday's lows, only slightly more than half remains. Excluding extreme slippage during illiquid trading, the next important support area is $63K, followed by $60K (a round level and recent extremes) and $58K, through which the 200-week moving average passes.

BNB has underperformed the broader market, losing nearly 6% in the last 24 hours and over 21% in seven days, roughly double the rate of decline of BTC and ETH. At levels below $600, this coin found itself in last year's support area, from where it was actively bought on dips. But the technical situation is bleaker, as in 2025 buyers also found support on dips to the 50-week moving average, but this year bears pushed the price below that line at the end of January, after which we saw a heavy sell-off. This may only be a prelude to another 50% drop to $300.

News background

According to CoinGlass, the Coinbase Premium index, which tracks the deviation of the BTC price on the US exchange Coinbase from the global average, has rebounded sharply, indicating a return of US investors.

However, there is no clear signal for a trend reversal yet. The Bitcoin futures market points to the likelihood of a further decline in Bitcoin. According to Amberdata, investors have not yet truly capitulated.

BitMine purchased an additional 40,000 ETH worth approximately $83.6 million. The company already owns more than 4.36 million coins and has fulfilled 72% of its plan to accumulate 5% of the ETH market supply.

According to CoinGecko, public DAT companies holding reserves in Solana faced unrealised losses exceeding $1.5 billion. The losses are concentrated among a small group of American firms whose shares have fallen by 59–73% over the past six months. However, the companies are not yet selling their assets.