Strategy won’t face Bitcoin liquidation in the next bear market: Willy Woo

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) won’t have to sell off part of its Bitcoin stash to cover its debt in the next significant crypto market downturn, according to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo.

“MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,” Willy Woo said in an X post on Wednesday.

Strategy’s debt consists mainly of convertible senior notes. Strategy is set to settle its conversions as they fall due by paying either cash, common stock, or a combination of both, at its election. 

Strategy safe from liquidation in next bear market

Strategy has around $1.01 billion in debt due on Sept. 15, 2027. To avoid needing to sell Bitcoin (BTC $101,815) to repay it, Strategy’s stock must be trading above $183.19, Woo said.

That price roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, and assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1, he added.

Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist said that “Bitcoin would have to perform horribly” in the next market downturn for Strategy to have to start selling off Bitcoin.

“Would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy,” they added. Strategy holds around 641,205 Bitcoin, which is worth around $64 billion at the time of publication, according to Saylor Tracker.

Strategy’s stock closed trading on Tuesday at a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist said that “Bitcoin would have to perform horribly” in the next market downturn for Strategy to have to start selling off Bitcoin.

“Would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy,” they added. Strategy holds around 641,205 Bitcoin, which is worth around $64 billion at the time of publication, according to Saylor Tracker.

Strategy’s stock closed trading on Tuesday at a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Woo tips a chance of a “partial liquidation”

While Woo does not expect a liquidation in the next bear market, he warned that it is possible if Bitcoin fails to rally strongly during the anticipated 2028 bull market.

“Ironically, there’s a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC doesn’t climb in value fast enough in an assumed 2028 bull market,” Willy Woo said.

Some executives, such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have forecast that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.