- XRP price managed to see a breakout above an important daily pattern; however, it ended up becoming a fakeout.
- The recent rejection has the potential to push XRP down to $0.215 in the short-term.
XRP was outperforming the crypto market in the past few days, especially after the most recent bullish breakout of the daily descending parallel channel. Unfortunately, the breakout turned out to be a fakeout, and the price got rejected.
What is the fate of XRP in the short-term?
The rejection from the upper boundary of the daily descending parallel channel and the 50-SMA is significant. Currently, XRP is re-testing the 100-SMA. However, this rejection is notable and will most likely drop the digital asset even below the 100-SMA at $0.244.
XRP/USD daily chart
The next support level would be $0.232, formed on October 3. On the shorter time-frames like the hourly chart, we can observe a trend change. XRP formed a high at $0.259, followed by a lower high at $0.254. It also established a low at $0.253 and then a lower low at $0.245, the current price.
XRP/USD 1-hour chart
This downtrend is now headed for the 100-SMA at $0.242. The MACD turned bearish this morning, and it’s getting stronger, indicating that further selling pressure will follow. Bad news doesn’t stop there.
XRP Holders Distribution
If we look at the distribution of XRP whales, we can see that the downtrend continues. Holders with 1,000,000 - 10,000,000 coins are slowly exiting from 1338 whales on October 4 to 1336 now. Similarly, the number of whales with at least 10,000,000 coins dropped from 313 on October 2 to only 309.
Despite all the negative factors, XRP bulls still have a chance to come back. The daily chart has established a healthy support level in the form of the 100-SMA. A successful defense of this level could prompt XRP to re-test the 50-SMA and the upper boundary of the descending parallel channel.
Both buyers and sellers need to focus on the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA. If $0.244 breaks, XRP can easily slip towards $0.23. On the other hand, if it holds, we could see a re-test of $0.254 where the 50-SMA stands on the daily chart.