Pro-XRP attorney says Ripple has 25% chance of winning against SEC, Judge could announce verdict by September

Ripple has a 25% chance of winning its legal battle against  the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), according to pro-XRP attorney John Deaton. Over the weekend, Deaton shared his opinion on Ripple’s likelihood of both an outright win and a partial victory. 

Ripple’s win could positively influence XRPLedger’s native token XRP and likely promote a relisting of the altcoin across top cryptocurrency exchange platforms. 

Also read: Ripple price eyes 25% breakout as XRP community anticipates June 13

Pro-XRP attorney believes Ripple has favorable odds of victory against the SEC

John Deaton, the founder of CryptoLaw, is a pro-Ripple attorney. In a June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton commented on the likelihood of Ripple’s win against the SEC. 

In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, alleging the sale of $1.3 billion worth of XRP tokens in an unregistered securities offering. Since then, the XRP holder community has been watching the lawsuit closely for signs of Ripple’s win, anticipating a positive impact on the altcoin’s price. 

Deaton places Ripple’s odds of an outright win at 25% and a partial victory or “splitting the baby” ruling at 50%. The pro-XRP attorney informed the community that the US SEC has a “less than 3%” chance of an outright win against payment remittance firm Ripple. 

A “splitting the baby” ruling would imply that Judge Torres potentially rules that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018. It is likely that XRP transitions from a security to a commodity once it is sufficiently decentralized, based on the conclusions drawn from the emails of SEC former director of the Division of Corporate Finance William Hinman. 

SEC vs. Ripple verdict will most likely be announced by September 30

Deaton told XRP community holders that Judge Analisa Torres, who is presiding over the SEC vs. Ripple case, is likely to announce the verdict by September 30 of this year. The pro-XRP attorney argues that a soft deadline of six months is offered to district judges and the list details of all summary judgements pending for longer than six months are filed to Congress.

The list gets published on the last day of March and September. Deaton, therefore, expects a ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case by September 30 of this year.