JPMorgan estimates ‘fair value’ of Bitcoin at $38K

Amid Bitcoin (BTC) posting a significant price recovery since early February, JPMorgan analysts suggested that the “fair value” of BTC is actually lower than its market price on Tuesday.

The current fair-value level for BTC is around $38,000, JPMorgan strategists said in the bank’s latest investor note published on Tuesday. Led by JPMorgan crypto market analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the strategists estimated the “fair value” based on Bitcoin being nearly four times as volatile as gold.

The “fair value” of Bitcoin would rise to $50,000 in a scenario where the volatility level narrows to three times, the strategists suggested, adding:

“The biggest challenge for Bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption.”

At the time of writing, BTC traded around $43,000, or 12% up from the “fair value” suggested by JPMorgan. Bitcoin previously was inching closer to $45,000, reaching around $44,900 on Tuesday, according to data from CoinGecko.

While being bearish on Bitcoin’s current “fair value,” JPMorgan’s strategists still forecast that BTC will surge far above $100,000 one day. According to the report, Panigirtzoglou’s long-term theoretical target for Bitcoin stands at $150,000, up from $146,000 forecasted in January 2021.

JPMorgan’s analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s price correction in January looks “less like a capitulation” than the one recorded in May 2021, when BTC plummeted 50% from above $60,000 to around $33,000. However, some BTC metrics, such as futures open interest and reserves on exchanges, are pointing to a “more long-standing and thus more worrisome position reduction trend” that began in November, the strategists reportedly added.

The strategists previously released a similar report in November, asserting that Bitcoin’s “fair value” was around $35,000, or about 45% lower than its market price of $63,281.