JPMorgan Chase: Bitcoin is “too cheap” as volatility hits record lows

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. assert that Bitcoin (BTC) appears “too cheap” relative to gold following a historic decline in volatility—prompting a revised fair value estimate approximately 13% above current levels.

Using a volatility-adjusted framework that benchmarks against gold’s private-investment market—valued at approximately $5 trillion, the bank concludes Bitcoin is currently “undervalued by about $16,000,” reinforcing its appeal for institutional portfolios.

This assessment stems from a dramatic compression in Bitcoin’s volatility. Six-month realized volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to just 30% today—a record low. 

Bitcoin now trades at only about twice the volatility of gold, the narrowest spread ever recorded. As this gap closes, JPMorgan’s model indicates Bitcoin’s fair value should converge more closely with gold’s private-investment valuation.

JPMorgan’s cross-asset team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, links the volatility collapse to a maturing holder base and market structure.

Source: TradingView, www.gold.co.uk, TradingView

They estimate corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of the circulating supply, forming a growing pool of long-term “sticky” coins that reduce daily price swings.

Index inclusion effects are also contributing. Equity listings tied to Bitcoin exposure are attracting passive capital. For instance, Japan’s Metaplanet Inc. (TSE: 3350) recently graduated into FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category and global benchmarks after expanding its Bitcoin stack.

In the U.S., Kindly MD (Nasdaq: NAKA) has moved to raise up to $5 billion following a $679 million Bitcoin purchase, signaling more treasury-style demand.

New entrants, including ventures linked to industry veterans (including Adam Back), are likewise building balance-sheet positions to rival Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: MARA), though Strategy Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains the reference standard for corporate Bitcoin treasuries.

Bitcoin vs Gold: Multi-million-Dollar parity forecasts for 2030s

Importantly, JPMorgan’s comparison does not equate Bitcoin with gold’s entire market, which includes jewelry, central bank reserves, and industrial use. 

Rather, the analysis focuses exclusively on gold’s private-investment segment, adjusted for risk. Lower realized volatility increases Bitcoin’s “fair” market cap within this segment, even absent major price movement.

This marks a stark realignment from the financial giants, whose CEO once saw no intrinsic value in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin maximalists extend this thesis further. Analyst Joe Consorti of The Bitcoin Layer suggests that if Bitcoin reached the total market size of gold today, its price could approach $1.17 million per coin. 

Extrapolating current five-year growth rates, he projects potential parity between Bitcoin and gold’s investment market as early as the 2030s, with aggressive scenarios pointing toward multi-million-dollar valuations.