Alexander Kuptsikevich
FxPro Financial Services Limited
Market picture
The crypto market was relatively quick to digest the sell-off that gripped markets following Israel's attack on Iran. The capitalisation rose 4.7% in 24 hours to $2.33 trillion, but this is down from $2.62 trillion seven days earlier.
Halving and strong technical support are supporting a 'buy on dips' pattern in Bitcoin, and this is affecting the rest of the cryptocurrencies. The halving will take place on Saturday night. The technical picture now suggests that BTCUSD is successfully holding within a corrective pattern, finding support on dips to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the January lows.
However, bullish positions are not as strong as they were earlier in the month, with the 50-day moving average acting as resistance. A strong rally above $67 will be needed to overcome this bearish signal.
News background
JPMorgan allowed bitcoin to fall after it halved based on an analysis of open interest in bitcoin futures. In addition, the market remains overbought.
Historically, major post-halving gains occur in 6-18 months, and major price changes become statistically less likely as market size increases, Coinify noted.
Analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, said the current halving cycle is no different from previous ones. He expects bitcoin to peak at $100K in 2024 and $300K next year.
The Finder platform presented the results of a survey of 31 cryptocurrency and financial technology experts. Bitcoin could reach $122K in 2024 and $109K by the end of the year.
According to BitInfoChart, bitcoin transaction fees spiked on the back of user activity in anticipation of the launch of Runes, a new interchangeable token standard on the BTC blockchain. The average commission exceeded $16.
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