Ethereum price analysis: ETH/USD loses all weekly gains, more pain to come

Ethereum, the second largest coin by market value, had an awful Monday, losing over 11% on a daily basis. ETH/USD is currently changing hands at $195, below the critical $200 handle.  The coin has been very volatile lately, experiencing double-digit rout for the second time in two weeks. While the sell-off as triggered by the bearish sentiments that gripped the cryptocurrency market after a short-lived recovery at the end of the previous week.

It is worth noting that the sell-off was accompanied by a strong growth of trading volumes towards the highest levels since September 13. 

Meanwhile, Ethereum community is getting ready for major protocol upgrades that will lead to hard forks and enable a shift to a new consensus algorithm.  Constantinople hard fork will take place in October, while a much dreaded and awaited Casper upgrade will happen somewhere in 2019.

Read more about Ethereum's difficulty bomb and Casper update here.

This uncertainty coupled with regulatory issues and massive ETH sales by startups eager to cash out their ICO proceeds, lead to great volatility and put the coin under additional pressure.

Ethereum's technical picture

A sustainable movement below $200 spoils the technical picture and signals that more selling pressure may be in store unless the coin regains ground quickly. There is little in terms of supports below the current level, which means that the recent low at $166 may be retested rather sooner than later. On the upside, $200 is guarded by 23.6% Fibo retracement daily and a host of SMAs including SMA200, 1-hour and SMA50, 4-hour). Once it is cleared, the recovery may be extended towards $211 (23.6% Fibo retracement weekly).

ETH/USD, 1-hour chart