Crypto market ‘underestimates the long-term impact’ of Bitcoin halving: Bitwise

The Bitcoin (BTC $63,029) halving is days away now, scheduled for April 20, but price action in the month that follows the highly anticipated event has been historically disappointing, said Bitwise Asset Management.

In an April 16 X post, Bitwise noted past price action in the month after the Bitcoin halving for the past three halvings saw its price drop — but in the year that followed, its price saw a minimum of triple-digit percentage point gains.

In the month after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin gained 9% — but over the next year, it surged 8,839%.

A similar pattern played out in the 2016 halving: Bitcoin fell 10% the month after and gained 285% to peak at $20,000 in 2017. Again, in 2020, it saw a 6% price gain in the month post-halving, then a 548% pump in the year following.

Bitcoin’s gains after its halvings. Source: Bitwise/X

“The data is limited but the picture reveals an intriguing pattern,” Bitwise wrote. “The market prices in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimates the long-term impact.”

The current market cycle is the first time that Bitcoin has hit an all-time high before its halving.

The cryptocurrency hit its current $73,679 peak on March 13, its since corrected 16% to a low of $61,500.

Industry executives are equally pessimistic in the short term. 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen predicted on April 13 that there could be a $5-billion miner sell-off after the halving, putting downward pressure on markets.

Meanwhile, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel said that the halving rally was already factored in, bringing forward what would have been a post-halving rally.

On April 16, trader and analyst Rekt Capital posted on X a list of market correction magnitudes since the 2022 bear market bottom.

There were five significant pullbacks ranging from 18% to 23%. Currently, markets have corrected 16% and suggested that there could be further to go.

Market corrections since bear market low. Source: Rekt Capital

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Cold Blooded Shiller noted that 30% corrections were not uncommon, hinting that BTC could potentially fall to around $51,000.