Can Bitcoin still reach $115K?

Happy New Year to new and regular readers of our work. We primarily use the Elliott Wave (EW) to forecast the financial markets—in this case, Bitcoin’s most likely paths forward. Although there are many ways to navigate the world of cryptocurrencies and to each their own, we find the EWP to be the most reliable and accurate.

Namely, in our previous update from December 13, we found for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

“… the orange W[ave]-3 and W[ave]-4 were completed, just shy of the ideal target zone. Now, the question is whether the grey W-iii was completed at the recent all-time high of $104,028. Another down week this week will confirm this thesis as we assess down weeks as corrective. In that case, we can anticipate the grey W-iv to bottom out at, ideally, $90+/-2K before the next rally kicks in to ~$110K, completing the green W-3. One more down-up sequence should be expected to complete the green W-4 and W-5 sequences, respectively, at ideally $115+/-2K. “

Fast-forward, and BTC peaked at $108369 four days after our article was published for the grey W-iii. It then dropped to $91310 on December 30^th (orange W-a). It rallied to $102747 on January 7 (orange W-b); today, it fell to as low as $89153 (orange W-c). Thus, the grey W-iii was completed at the recent All-Time High, and the anticipated grey W-iv is now underway. So far, our forecast from a month ago is still on track. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Our preferred detailed, long-term EWP count for Bitcoin

The current decline can reach as low as $85500-86500 for an ideal (orange) W-c = W-a extension, but it is unnecessary at this stage as the orange and grey target zones have been reached. Moreover, the decline from the ATH comprises, so far, three waves: orange W-a, -b, -c, which is a corrective pattern. Thus, our preferred expectation remains that once the grey W-iv completes, and an excellent sign of that will be on a daily close above $102,282, the grey W-v of the green W-3 of the red W-v of the black W-3 should then target ideally $114,500-120,500, assuming the grey W-v is 0.5x to 0.618x the length of grey W-iii.

Subsequently, this means we can raise the larger 3^rd wave target as well, and a conservative estimate at this stage is around $127K. But we’re not there yet, and we’ll monitor and adjust accordingly as the price data fills in, allowing us to determine that wave top more accurately. Lastly, once the black W-3 tops, we should expect BTC to experience a severe 4^th wave correction (black W-4) like in the summer of 2023 and 2021. Both saw 50-62% retracements of the prior same-degree 3rd waves. That would mean BTC could drop to as low as $60-75K before it resumes its rally to $216K to $445K by the end of 2025.