- Bitcoin price fills the inefficiency created during its run-up above the yearly open at $46,198.
- The recent retracement is a key in triggering the next leg-up to $50,000.
- On-chain metrics suggest an extremely bullish outlook for BTC in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin price shows affinity to move higher after the recent surge on March 27. The previous downswing helped remove any inefficiencies to the bottom while setting up the stage for another leg-up.
Bitcoin price prepares to swing higher
Bitcoin price set up three equal highs and four higher lows since January 13. Connecting these swing points using trend lines shows an ascending triangle formation, which forecasts a 21% upswing.
The target is obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $44,418. BTC broke out of its ascending triangle setup on March 27 but stopped moving higher after peaking at $48,238. This lack of momentum mixed with the inefficiency to the bottom, caused BTC to slide lower.
Investors can expect the Bitcoin price to enjoy its gains as long as it stays above the $45,000 support level. A quick recovery above the yearly open at $46,198 will be the key to triggering the next run-up.
In this case, market participants can expect the Bitcoin price to retest the $50,000 psychological level. In a highly bullish case, however, BTC could make a run at $52,000 or the swing highs formed in late December 2021.
Either way, the upside for BTC seems to be capped at around $53,000 and any move beyond this level seems unlikely.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
While the technicals are displaying an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin price, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model supports that. This index shows that the immediate resistance barrier, stretching from $45,887 to $48,410 is relatively weak.
Here roughly 3.25 million addresses that purchased nearly 2 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Therefore, a substantial increase in buying pressure is necessary to overcome this hurdle. Doing so will pave the way to $50,000 or higher.
BTC GIOM
With Bitcoin price moving to $48,000, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model briefly flipped positive. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year.
Even with this index heading over the zero-line, the historical data suggests that the 365-day MVRV peaks at roughly 22%, indicating that there is more upside yet to be seen for the Bitcoin price.
BTC 365-day MVRV
Perhaps the most important index is the uptick in the number of whales accumulating BTC. Since November 12, the Bitcoin price has dropped from $66,000 to a low point of $34,000 and whales holding between 10,000 to 1,00,000 BTC have been busy accumulating.
The category of investors with 10,000 to 100,000 BTC has increased its holdings from 10.26% to 11.26%, while those holding 100,000 to 1,000,000 BTC have moved up from 3.03% to 3.48%.
This development only points to one thing, the institutions’ outlook on how bullish they are on the Bitcoin price.
BTC supply distribution
Since March 6, the Bitcoin price has rallied from $38,400 to $48,000. Despite this uptick, investors seem to be moving their holdings off exchanges. This can be seen in the increasing outflows via the net exchange position change since March 7.
In conclusion, not only are the institutions and whales accumulating but they are also moving their holdings to cold wallets, which paints a bullish picture for the future of Bitcoin.
-637843860652932856.png)
BTC exchange net position change
While things are looking up for the Bitcoin price, the ascending triangle outlook could fail if the $44,418 support level is breached. This move would hint at a retest of the immediate support level at $42,076.
If Bitcoin price produces a daily candlestick close below $42,076, it will invalidate the bullish thesis and send the big crypto crashing to the lower limit of the ascending triangle at roughly $37,000.
In a highly bearish case, a breakdown of the $35,000 support floor could cause the Bitcoin price to trigger a crash to $30,000.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Google, Apple could remove Binance from their app store on Philippines SEC request
The Philippines SEC has requested Google and Apple to remove applications controlled by Binance from their App stores. The exchange’s Philippines-based users are finding the exchange inaccessible to remove their funds.
XRP rallies as Ripple slams SEC for penalties, asks regulator to establish likelihood of future violations
Ripple filed its response to the SEC lawsuit on Monday, arguing that XRP institutional sales before and after the court ruling show no disregard for the law. The firm asks for a civil penalty of no more than $10 million against the $2 billion requested by the SEC.
Here’s why Ondo price hit new ATH amid bearish market outlook Premium
Ondo price shows no signs of slowing down after setting up an all-time high (ATH) at $1.05 on March 31. This development is likely to be followed by a correction and ATH but not necessarily in that order.
PENDLE price soars 10% after Arthur Hayes’ optimism on Pendle derivative exchange
Pendle price is among the top performers in the cryptocurrency market today, posting double-digit gains. Its peers in the altcoin space are not as forthcoming even as the market enjoys bullish sentiment inspired by Bitcoin (BTC) price.
Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?