Bitcoin undervalued versus Gold as volatility collapses, JPMorgan says

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading too cheap relative to gold as its volatility falls to historic lows, Wall Street bank JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report Thursday.

The bank highlighted that bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has dropped from nearly 60% at the start of the year to about 30% today, the lowest on record.

With volatility converging toward gold, the world's largest cryptocurrency is now only twice as volatile, the lowest ratio on record, the report noted.

JPMorgan argued that the digital asset is increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios.

On a volatility-adjusted basis, bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise 13%, implying a price of about $126,000, to match gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By the bank’s models, bitcoin is currently undervalued by around $16,000 versus gold, suggesting room for upside.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou linked the move to accelerating purchases by corporate treasuries, which now hold more than 6% of total supply, echoing how central bank quantitative easing once dampened bond volatility.

Corporate adoption is gaining momentum through equity index inclusion, drawing passive capital inflows, the analysts said.

Metaplanet (3350), for instance, was upgraded into FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category and added to global benchmarks, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) is raising up to $5 billion after a $679 million bitcoin buy.

New entrants like Adam Back’s firm are also aiming to rival MARA Holdings' (MARA) treasury position behind Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR), the report added.