Bitcoin trades quietly as pivotal Fed rate decision looms

Bitcoin continues to hover around the 90k level in muted trade as investors look cautiously ahead to the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. 

While rising expectations of a rate cut last week lifted Bitcoin and the crypto market, the mood is turning more cautious as the FOMC’s two-day meeting begins. The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut tomorrow. With the move almost fully priced in, the Fed’s statement, its updated projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will set the tone for the markets heading towards the end of the year. 

There are some concerns that the Fed will adopt a hawkish cut and signal a slower pace of rate cuts in 2026. The market is pricing in 77 basis points of rate cuts by mid-2026. This would be two rate cuts next year, after one this week. The Fed’s September dot plot pointed to one next year. Will the Fed move in line with market expectations? If not, a hawkish re-pricing of expectations could pull risk assets such as BTC lower.  

Either way, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting scheduled for 19:00 GMT tomorrow, which could act as a decisive catalyst – with either a dovish bias re-igniting upside momentum or a hawkish stance triggering another leg lower. 

ETF outflows limit BTC’s upside 

The macro uncertainty, combined with weak institutional demand, sees BTC struggle to regain 94k.  BTC ETFs had previously provided consistent buy-side support during rallies. However, BCT ETF demand has cooled considerably, recording net outflows of $60.48 million on Monday after $87.7 million in net outflows last week and $3.48 billion in outflows last month. This means that BTC has struggled to absorb sell pressure. 

DATs accumulation stalls 

Accumulation by Digital Asset Treasuries has also slowed considerably from the June peak. Weekly DATs inflows have dropped from $4.2 billion in June to a low of $8 million. The reduced accumulation comes as these firms have seen their value fall sharply this year. According to Bloomberg, US- and Canadian-listed DATs have seen their median stock price drop 43% in 2025, raising concerns about possible forced selling. 

Twenty One Capital, a major player in the BTC DATs sector, is on the verge of going public in the US. However, the company has moved 43,500 BTC worth $4.5 billion into an escrow wallet. The move raises concerns of a potential selloff.  

Meanwhile, Strategy took advantage of recent market volatility to acquire an additional 10,624 Bitcoin at an average price of $ 90,615 between December 1-7, for a total of $962.7 million. It is worth noting that Strategy’s huge debt pile will only begin maturing in 2028, giving the firm ample time to manoeuvre and lowering expectations that Strategy will sell BTC anytime soon. 

BTC technical analysis 

BTC has recovered from the 80.5k November low. However, the recovery faced rejection at 94k, the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 74.4k low and the 126.2k high, and eased back to consolidate around 90k, the psychological level. The RSI is just below 50, pointing to fading bearish momentum. 

Buyers would need to settle above 94k to extend the recovery towards 100k. 

Sellers would need to break below 85k, the 78.6% Fib retracement, to bring 80.5k back into focus.