Bitcoin steadies at 105k amid a fragile market mood and BTC ETF outflows, where next?

After falling back from the record high of 111.9k reached on May 24 to a low of 103.9k, Bitcoin is consolidating around 105k. Meanwhile, Ethereum has risen above 2600, and XRP is testing 2.20 resistance. 

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has risen 0.69% to $3.31 trillion over the past 24 hours. The crypto Fear and Greed Index is 58, in neutral territory, down from 68, Greed last week. This drop in sentiment suggests that investors could be hesitant and points to a consolidation phase. 

Geopolitical tension keeps the mood fragile

At the end of last week, Trump ramped up rhetoric against China, fueling concerns of a renewed escalation in US-China trade tensions. While Trump accused China of breaching the Geneva deal, China rejected the accusations. Concerns of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies keep the market mood fragile.  

While China's manufacturing fell into contraction, attention will be on US data throughout this week, including factory orders today, ISM services PMI on Wednesday, and Friday’s non-farm payroll, for further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. 

BTC institutional demand cools, ETH rises 

After Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $5.23 billion in May, June is starting off on the wrong foot. At the start of this month, BTC ETFs saw outflows of $267.5 million. Institutional demand has eased, and BTC ETFs have recorded three consecutive days of outflows, the longest run of outflows since mid-April. Persistent BTC ETF outflows could put further pressure on the Bitcoin price. 

Of note, ETH ETFs are outperforming, booking 11 straight days of net inflows, the longest run of inflows since December last year. On a weekly basis, ETH ETFs are recording the fourth consecutive week of inflows, marking the strongest streak this year. Ath investment products outperformed after a positive statement from the Securities and Exchange Commission on staking, which is likely to boost interest and could open the door to prove findings from asset managers seeking to allow staking within the Ethereum ETFs. 

Retail interest slumps 

While Bitcoin holds above 100,000, Google search interest in BTC has slumped to levels seen when BTC traded at significantly lower levels. This lack of excitement points to a lack of interest and muted price action as the BTC eased away from its record high. A sharp move higher or lower may be needed to reignite retail interest. 

Crypto treasury strategy gains amid smaller firms 

While institutional demand is showing signs of slowing and retail interest is weak, corporate demand is rising fast. Crypto treasury strategy is gaining popularity as companies, including Semler Scientific, Meta Planet, and Trump Media Group, look to increase their bitcoin stakes. 

(Micro)Strategy announced yesterday an additional purchase of 750 BTC, bringing its total holding to 580,955 BTC. Meta Planet also added 1088 BTC to its holdings, with the Japanese firm’s total holding now at 8,888 BTC.  

However, Meta shareholders voted overwhelmingly against a Bitcoin treasury proposal. 95% of shareholders rejected the move as the firm remains focused on cash growth and core business investment. This is in contrast to smaller, more agile businesses embracing crypto as part of their growth strategy. Ongoing strong corporate demand could offer some support to the BTC price. 

Bitcoin technical analysis  

After reaching the ATH of 111.9k, BTC fell back to 103.9k, breaking out of its multi-month rising channel. The price is consolidating around the 105k with momentum slowing. 

Should sellers take out 103.5k, this could open the door to a steeper selloff towards 100k. 

Should bullish momentum pick up, buyers could look to rise towards resistance at 110k. Above here, 111.9k and fresh record highs come into focus. 

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