Bitcoin rises towards 86k amid Trump tariff exemptions – Will BTC break out?

Bitcoin is rising for a second straight day, gaining over 1.5% across the past 24 hours, as it extends its recovery from 74.4k, the 5-month low hit last week. The largest cryptocurrency could rise towards 90k should treasury yields continue to fall as investors weigh up the latest Trump tariff developments. 

 Yesterday, President Trump indicated that he's considering temporary exemptions on vehicle import tariffs, bringing some relief to key trade partners such as Mexico, Canada, and Europe. His comments came as the administration had already rolled back some other planned tariffs, including exclusions for electronics like smartphones and laptops, most of which are imported from China.  

US Treasury yields ease, boosting demand for risk assets 

The apparent softening in tone from the Trump administration has helped to boost risk sentiment, helping crypto currencies and equities higher. Meanwhile, treasury yields have come under pressure. The US 10-year treasury yield declined by 8.2 basis points to 4.4% on Monday, while the two-year yield slipped to 3.88%. 

Lower treasury yields reduce the appeal of fixed-income assets and support demand for riskier trades, such as Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. However, the market remains wary, as Trump has highlighted that these exemptions are temporary. As a result, a level of uncertainty remains. 

Attention will remain on trade tariff developments and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak tomorrow. Powell could provide further insight into the Fed’s stance given the uncertain outlook from the Trump administration’s incoherent trade policies.  

Institutional demand remains weak  

Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience net outflows due to weak institutional demand. BTC ETFs recorded the sixth straight day of net outflows on Monday. This comes after Bitcoin ETFs posted a hefty $713 million in net outflows last week, marking the third-highest weekly outflow of 2025. Persistent ETF outflows could keep Bitcoin gains limited. 

Whales and LTHs accumulate 

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales and long-term holders (LTH) have accumulated over the past few months, even as the Bitcoin price declined.  Large wallets holding 1k to 10k BTC have acquired 100k since March. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) command 13.6 million BTC, reflecting a 420k hike in holdings over the same period. 

Accumulation by these groups doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent price jump, but it does suggest that more investors consider Bitcoin closer to a fair value, potentially presenting a buying opportunity. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin has extended its recovery from the 74.4k 2025 low, rising above the falling trendline dating back to the January 109.5k high and the 50 SMA. This, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers hopeful of further gains. 

Buyers will need to close above 86k, the weekly high and the key 200 SMA resistance at 87.5k, to bring 90k into focus. Once above here, 100k becomes a realistic target. 

Failure to rise above 86k could see a retest of the falling trendline support at 82.7k. Below here, 80k comes into play. 

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