Bitcoin pulls back after rally with geopolitics and data in focus

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are falling on Wednesday as the recent rally pauses. Bitcoin and its peers have had a strong start to 2026 after a dismal final few months of last year. 

Bitcoin rose to near the 95k milestone at the start of this week, its highest level since November. However, the price has since declined, falling back to around 91.7k at the time of writing, down 1.9% over the past 24 hours. That said, Bitcoin is still up 5% in 2026 and remains 28% from its record high reached early October. 

Geopolitical macro risks 

Risk appetite is muted amid heightened geopolitical tensions across the globe as a China-Japan diplomatic spat worsens, and as Russia reportedly sends a submarine to escort an oil tanker that the US tried to seize off the Irish coast.  

Broadly speaking, the market has been unfazed by the US intervention in Venezuela. Indeed, the initial market reaction was positive, lifting BTC and sending the Dow Jones to a record high.  

In the latest developments, Trump announced that Venezuela would send up to 50 million barrels of oil to the market for sale. This is a bearish development for oil, pulling oil prices down 1% today. Lower oil prices are beneficial for the global economy and for liquidity, which could benefit BTC and other risk assets in the long term. That said, rising geopolitical uncertainty, especially if Russia gets involved, offsets this positivity. 

US data in focus 

Attention is also on U.S. economic data, with ADP payrolls and ISM services PMI figures due shortly and ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The data could help clarify the Fed's path for interest rates. The market has struggled to obtain an accurate assessment of the global economy following the U.S. government shutdown. Weaker data could support Fed rate cut expectations, supporting BTC. 

Institutional demand starts 2026 strongly 

BTC ETFs recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows in the first two days of trading, although that cooled yesterday, the third day of trading this year, with $243.2 million in net inflows. Even so, this is an encouraging start to the year, following slightly disappointing institutional demand in 2025, with net inflows of $21 billion, down from $35 billion in 2024. 

Monday’s $697 million in net inflows was the largest single daily intake in three months. Another positive is news that Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC to launch BTC, SOL, and ETH ETFs, which adds to the view that crypto is becoming more mainstream.  Persistent ETF demand could help keep BTC above 90k and rise towards the psychologically important 100k level. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin’s recovery from the 84k December 18 low once again ran into resistance around the 94k- 95k zone, which has been tested on several occasions since early December.  

Buyers would need to break above this key resistance area, the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 74.4k low to the 126.2k high. A rise above here would create a higher high, opening the door to 100k. 

Immediate support is seen at 90k, the round number. A break below here and the 50 SMA at 89.2k opens the door to 85k, the 78.6% Fib level, and the mid-December low.