Bitcoin price reveals spread-eagle between stakeholders

Bitcoin (BTC) price is being pulled left and right as a clear division in positioning can be identified when looking at the CME data on Bitcoin Futures. The weekly publication shows that non-commercial or retail traders are currently positioned for a jump in Bitcoin price action, while commercial positioning from banks, hedge funds and affiliates points to a massive net-shorting position in Bitcoin, looking for more downside to come.

BTC futures positioning split 

Bitcoin price is being torn into two pieces as retail and commercial positioning could not be further apart. With the retail traders betting on higher Bitcoin prices, commercial positioning is seeing Bitcoin lower in the coming weeks and months. Considering all elements and comments that came out these past few days and weeks, commercial positioning is likely to come out on top, with BTC set to drop another leg lower.

BTC price, thus, sees price action drop already erasing all the gains from Wednesday. Another leg lower means that price action could lose another 5% towards $19,036, opening up more downturn as $19,000 gets set to break soon. One trigger could be the US job report out tomorrow. In the case where it does not show a cool-down on the job market, the Fed will be expected to continue with its hawkish tilt, triggering further downside for BTC price towards $18,000.

BTC/USD Daily chart

Price action, for now, is getting underpinned by the monthly S1 from August, and Bitcoin price could still bounce and try to rally towards the new monthly pivot for September that is trading near $21,624. Around that area, however, quite a few price caps are presenting themselves, with the historic pivotal level at $12,969 and the 55-day Simple Moving Average near $22,000. A tough level or area to crack for more upside will need to hinge on more positive fundamental catalysts emerging, which would see a shift in the commercial positioning on the futures towards more long positions.