Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bears seeking a discount from old support


  • Bitcoin has been on the backfoot over these past few sessions.
  • BTC/USD is capped at the 19,490 highs and plummeting to a low of 16,218.
  • The coin was falling near to 17% in the past 36-hours and there is significant downside potential still. 

The crypto has corrected some of the latest bearish moves, but not even in a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as of yet. 

Bulls can aim for between a 50-61.8% Fibo retracement from where bears will be looking for old support to act as a resistance.

In doing so, markets will be on the lookout for the next bearish impulse and a lower low to fully complete a 38.2% Fibo of the weekly bullish trend at 15,975.

If the market breaks this level, a 61.8% retracement of the weekly bullish trend will be compelling where it meets the June 2019 peak at 13,880. 

The following is a top-down analysis which illustrates the market structure, an initial bias to the upside and then for an extension of the downside. 

Monthly chart

This is an overbought market that needs to correct and the 61.8% retracement area has a strong confluence with old highs making it a compelling target. 

Weekly chart

It is either make or break at this juncture, with a compelling case for the downside on a fill of the weekly wick on the lower time frames, such as the daily chart below:

As the price corrects, the old support would be expected to act as resistance.

If the structure holds, then there is a high probability that the bulls will capitulate and give way to a phase of distribution and bearish impulse to test old resistance structures and mark fresh lower lows. 

The first stop will be the 38.2% Fibo ahead of the aforementioned confluence zone between hold highs and a 61.8% Fibo retracement of the monthly rally. 

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