Bitcoin open interest jumps $1.3B following Fed's 'dovish' minutes

Bitcoin futures traders added over a billion to Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) in the hours after the United States Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes, which some say further confirms a September rate cut.

On Aug. 22, Bitcoin futures OI climbed to $31.92 billion, an increase of $1.26 billion compared to the previous 12 hours. 

OI is the total number of derivative contracts that have not been settled, such as options or futures. An increase in OI indicates greater confidence among traders in predicting Bitcoin’s price direction, whether up or down.

However, data shows the cohort is fairly split on whether Bitcoin’s (BTC $60,771) price will rise or fall.

Over the 12-hour period, long traders held a slight advantage with 50.63% of total future positions, compared to 49.37% for shorts, according to CoinGlass data.

Bitcoin’s price is trading at $60,623, a level it has been hovering around since Aug. 9, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin is up 2.26% over the past 24 hours. Source: CoinMarketCap

10x Research head of research Markus Thielen commented that the Fed’s minutes “makes a rate cut in September almost a certainty” in an Aug. 22 report.

“A “vast majority” of FOMC members supported a rate cut in September, with several members even considering a July cut as a plausible option,” Thielen stated.

“Bitcoin looks like It’s ready to break higher. The FED minutes were released a few hours ago, with a very dovish tone,” pseudonymous crypto trader Sykodelic added.

When interest rates drop, investors typically move away from safe assets like bonds and term deposits, turning instead to perceived riskier assets like Bitcoin.

“Prepare yourself for one of the most explosive Q4 in history, for US markets and Indian markets,” crypto commentator Nishant Bhardwaj stated, citing the Fed being “on the verge” of cutting interest rates.

“Powell’s upcoming Friday speech is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, likely boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin as monetary policy provides a favorable backdrop,” Thielen stated.

Meanwhile, on Aug. 15, Caldwell Investment Management portfolio manager Justin Elliot opined that there is nothing to support the “level of aggression” expected by the Fed to cut rates.