Bitcoin hovers below 109K as Trump extends the tariff deadline

Bitcoin continues to hover below the 109k level with a new ATH above 112k still looking elusive, as the 110k level offers strong resistance.  

The crypto market capitalisation has risen 0.3% to $3.36 trillion, while the Fear and Greed Index remains at 50 in Neutral territory as investors await the next major catalyst. 

Bitcoin is being supported by a mildly risk-on mood across the markets after President Trump sent tariff letters to over a dozen nations, outlining elevated tariffs, but also postponing the deadline for imposing the higher levies. The extension to August 1 and Trump's comments suggest that he is open to negotiation, which is keeping risk assets such as Bitcoin, as well as US futures, supported. 

BTC ETFs see solid inflows 

Bitcoin ETFs continued to see solid demand last week with net inflows of $769 million and those solid flows have continued at the start of the new week. BTC ETFs booked $216.6 million in net inflows on Monday.  

BlackRock’s BTC ETF is breaking records, surpassing 700k BTC ($76 billion) in assets under management on Monday, just 18 months after launch. IBIT is the third-largest revenue-generating ETF for BlackRock.  

Persistent demand for a BTC ETF could help support the BTC price higher.  

Strategy pauses BTC acquisitions, Murano announces BTC treasury plans 

Corporate purchases offered a mixed picture. Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases last week, ending a run of weekly BTC acquisitions dating back to April. These purchases have increased Strategy’s share of the total supply to nearly 3%.  

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, refraining from buying this week, could be another factor weighing on investors and limiting BTC’s upside. However, Meta Planet outlined plans to snap up as much BTC as possible to leverage to buy cash-generating businesses, and Murano, the Nasdaq-listed real estate firm, announced it will establish a Bitcoin Treasury. 

Upcoming events 

This week, the economic calendar is relatively quiet. Attention will be on the FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide some clues about the Fed’s future path for interest rates. After Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report, the market has priced out a July rate cut and only sees a 62% chance of a September rate cut, down from 73% a week ago, 

The crypto market has been unusually quiet in recent sessions. With Trump's tariff extension, attention is shifting to next week’s Crypto Week, which may become the next significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency markets. Here, US lawmakers will discuss and possibly pass several key bills related to cryptocurrency, including the Genius Act, the Stablecoin Bill, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. This, alongside the US government’s recent approval for a $5 trillion debt ceiling, could pave the way for a break above 100k.  

Bitcoin technical analysis 

After breaking out of the bull flag pattern, BTC/USD has encountered resistance once again at $110,000. The price is easing back from this level and testing the falling trendline support around 108k. The RSI suggests that bulls are running out of steam. 

Buyers must pick up momentum to break above the 110k level, which has been tested multiple times since late May and is proving a challenging level to crack. 

A close below 108k exposes the confluence of the 20 and 50 SMA at 106.5. A break below here opens the door to the 105k support level, and below that, the 100k level comes into focus. 

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