Market Cycles and Expectations

 

BTC/USD 240

Bitcoin, once known for it’s volatility has been trading in a constricted range and is currently at -2.14% as of this morning. Chart formations display a conundrum of indirection, yet momentum over the past 8 weeks has shifted elsewhere in the market. 

Intra-day charts demonstrate a no-trade zone. Oscillators and on-balance volume dictate that it’s too soon for a divergence. ADX is at neither a peak nor a trough, and moving average cross-overs have proven unproductive. 

In this article I’ll highlight what to expect in terms of market cycles, and what could be around the corner for BTC.

Altcoin

Above chart is of the Altcoin Market Cap, excluding BTC. Since 9/13/18, the Altcoin cap has rallied some 47%, then experienced a 61.8% retracement, only to show force in the form of a secondary rally. 

Also present on the chart is an incomplete inverse Head and Shoulder formation. With a potential upside target of 33%.

The previous BTC sell-off on October 11th did, in turn, instigate a sell-off in Altcoin cap, and today’s -2.14% is also having an impact. Yet, currently Altcoin cap is holding above the 6.18% Fibonacci level. More importantly Bitcoin’s reduced volatility shifted momentum towards alts, as many tokens experienced rallies, and others “bull runs”. 

In terms of market cycles, the sudden rally in Altcoins can be a precursor to an incoming BTC rally, as fundamentals are likely to shift momentum and volatility in favor of BTC bulls with the upcoming introduction of BAKKT, the institutional, spot only, Bitcoin futures settled the next day. This will provide much exposure to the asset, without the ability to short sell.

BTCUSD 720

The above chart displays three reversal formations, and the current Compound Fulcrum, (CF, B) on the chart could be paving the way for a bullish turn. 

April’s compound fulcrum set the currency into a 45%, 30-day relief rally. The month-long June through July Inverse Head and Shoulders formation was followed by a 25% rally, and the August descending broadening wedge, a 16% rally. 
Three reversal formations, yet BTC is currently trading below each of their respective, neckline and throwback, support zones. 

Critical Support Zones: $6,151, $5,967, and $5,799 
Resistance Zone: $6,759

The bull scenario: Likely to come to life with the crack of resistance at $6,759.
The bear scenario: Bitcoin must breach previous swing lows, highlighted above as critical support zones. 

With traditional markets experiencing a sell-off, all market participants appear on edge, and reluctant to buy a dip, whether correlation exists or not. The case for volume on BTC has been in steady decline. BAKKT might just be the much needed volume catalyst. Historically Altcoin rallies either precede a Bitcoin rally or follow one.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, predictions, or other information contained in our publications is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. George Saber and Coin Observatory LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Cryptos feed

Latest Crypto News


Latest Crypto News & Analysis

Editors’ Picks

Four reasons why XRP price could set new-all time high above $5

XRP price experienced a significant bull run as it rallied roughly 750% since 2021. However, due to the recent correction, Ripple’s year-to-date (YTD) performance is hovering around 268%.

More Ripple News

Shiba Inu price flashes first sign of reversal, eyes 38% upswing

Shiba Inu price dipped below the short-term governing range on June 11 as the crypto market experienced a minor sell-off. However, bulls have managed to push SHIB above the range high, indicating the resurgence of buyers.

More Shiba News

Ethereum might create another opportunity for buyers to kick-start new uptrend

Ethereum price is currently trading below a critical resistance level and is trying to breach past it. A decisive close above the swing high on June 9 will create a higher high and signal the start of an uptrend.

More Ethereum News

Cardano upswing hangs in balance, but on-chain metrics reveal trouble

Cardano price rose 12% after dipping below a crucial support level at $1.451. ADA is currently hovering inside a critical resistance level, ranging from $1.525 to $1.624. Only a decisive close above $1.636 will confirm the start of a run-up.

More Cardano News

BEST CRYPTO BROKERS/EXCHANGES



Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Markets revert to mean, but BTC price remains indecisive

Bitcoin price shows considerable strength after springing from the recent crashes. Still, it is uncertain whether the current bullish impulse will morph into a new uptrend or lead to a more profound decline.

Read the weekly forecast

BTC

ETH

XRP