Things are rather looking good for this week closure. Financial markets are set to end the week in positive territory after multi-week losses while JPY eases at rumors of a provisory resolution in US – Mexican trade discord and risk of a recession following Japanese Cabinet Office assessment of the Japanese economy.

Mexican Foreign Minister Macelo Ebrard proposal to send 6’000 Members of the National Guard to secure the border and the recent procedure triggered by ruling Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to uproot existing smuggler network appears to satisfy somewhat US authorities. Talks should continue on Friday while the final call should be on Sunday. The releases in Japan are yet not so promising. Although the Japanese economy shows signs of recovery as shown by April household spending up 1.30% (prior: 2.10; consensus: 2.60%) and maintained positive for the fifth consecutive period or April Coincident Index, which assesses business conditions in the economy, points at 101.9 (prior: 99.4), risk of recession is palpable. The Cabinet Office cut its economic assessment headline for the first time in over six years towards “worsening” from “weakening” in early January, as the increase in government consumption tax from 8% to 10% is scheduled for October 2019 while China’s economic slowdown weighs on production and exports. Speculations are even considering that the BoJ is set for further rate cut from current -0.10% to -0.30% during its 19 September 2019 meeting. The reason for the potential decision is notably due to a deterioration in economic growth and a weakening of inflationary pressures, partly due to a stronger yen, as well as to prevent a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ following a Fed cut that could occur one day before. In this context, a status quo for the BoJ following the Fed's decision to cut rate could should strengthen JPY. For now, we assume JPY should stay in demand as US President Donald Trump will decide later this month whether he is ready to impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion for Chinese products.


 

Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis

 


 

This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Bearish outside day as Fed tempers aggressive rate cut expectations

Tuesday’s bearish outside day makes today’s close pivotal. Fed officials pushed back on aggressive rate cut calls, pushing the USD higher. An above-forecast US durable goods data could yield a bearish daily close. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD offers fewer moves ahead of Carney’s speech

Having reversed from the 50-day SMA, mainly because of renewed Brexit fears and sluggish data from the UK’s CB retail sales survey, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2685 ahead of the London open.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 107.50

The less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers overnight continues to aid the post-FOMC US dollar recovery, prompting the USD/JPY pair to retest the midpoint of the 107 handle despite negative Asian equities. 

USD/JPY News

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The China syndrome

The index declined to 121.5 in June from April’s revised 131.3. A much more modest drop to 131.2 had been predicted.  “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” wrote Lynn Franco.

Read more

Gold: 100-HMA triggers the U-turn towards $1421?

Gold is on a run towards near-term horizontal-resistance following its U-turn from the 100-hour moving average (HMA) ticks it up to $1407.80 ahead of the European open on Wednesday.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures