XAU/USD outlook: Gold probes again through key supports but initial signals still need confirmation

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

XAU/USD

Gold price fell on Friday after recovery attempts previous day failed to regain pivotal barriers at $3371 (broken Fibo 23.6% of $2956/$3500) and $3400 (psychological) and signal that corrective phase off new all-time high is over.

Fresh weakness probes again through lower triggers at $3300 (psychological) and $3292 (Fibo 38.2% of $2956/$3500) with weekly close below here to generate fresh bearish signal and open way for deeper correction.

The metal is on track for weekly closing in red after two weeks of strong rally, with long upper shadow on weekly candle pointing to growing offers.

Gold is also on track for the fourth consecutive monthly gain, although long shadows of monthly candle signal indecision among investors as favorable fundamentals which strongly fueled safe-haven demand, started to change.

The yellow metal’s price was quickly deflated by easing trade tensions between the US and China, following the latest much softer tones from the US President Donald Trump, when he sidelined the story with enormous tariffs and signaled that talks between two countries already started.

However, the news are still conflicting as China denied all from Trump’s statement that keeps the overall situation heated.

Expect bearish signal on firm break and weekly close below $3292 Fibo level that would open way for deeper correction of the latest $2956/$3500 bull-leg and expose targets at $3228 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement) and $3200 (psychological).

Conversely, repeated failure to take out $3300/$3292 triggers would add to scenario of prolonged consolidation and potential basing, although the latter would require bounce above $3371 for confirmation.

Daily studies are still predominantly bullish (strong positive momentum / Tenkan / Kijun-sen in bullish setup), but initial reversal signal may be developing on weekly chart (red weekly candle with long upper shadow / fading bullish momentum / RSI turned south in deep overbought territory).

Expect clearer direction signal on break of either key level ($3300/$3400).

Res: 3307; 3346; 3371; 3400.
Sup: 3260; 3245; 3228; 3200.

Interested in Gold technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 3461.13
2. R2 3414.4
3. R1 3381.64
PP 3334.91
1. S1 3302.15
2. S2 3255.42
3. S3 3222.66

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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