Will the Fed raise rates tomorrow?

Stocks were slightly higher today. But there wasn't much to be excited about.

The major indices traded higher at the open, then moved sideways throughout the morning. But after an attempt rallied during lunch, stocks dropped, and continued to slide in the afternoon.

There was another move higher in the last 30 minutes in the trading day. But 10 minutes before the closing bell stocks dropped again.

At the close the major indices had given up most of the early gains lost. And the S&P was flat after being up more than 1.0%.

Here's where the major indices ended the day:

• The S&P finished flat. Up less than a quarter of a point, the S&P ended at 2,546.
• The DOW ended higher by 0.4%. Adding 83 points, the DOW closed at 23,676.
• The NASDAQ was up 0.5%. With a 30 point gain, the NASDAQ finished at 6,784.
• Bitcoin finished higher by 0.6%. Up $20, Bitcoin ended at $3,515.

Crude Oil (CL) was hammered and finished at a 15-month low. Down 6.9%, CL ended at $46.44 a barrel.

The VIX (aka "fear Index") was higher in spite of the major indices finishing the day higher. The VIX ended the day with a 4.3% gain with its highest close since February. What makes this odd, is that the VIX "typically" closes higher when stocks are lower.

Today the Fed kicked off their 2-day policy meeting.

The probability of a rate hike tomorrow is 71.5%. So if the Fed doesn't raise rates it would be a big surprise.

Aside from the rate decision, traders will pay close attention to the wording of the statement. And according to HSBC economist Kevin Logan, the key word is "gradual". If the Fed drops the word from its statement, it could set the expectation that rate hikes will come at a slower pace in 2019, instead of the "gradual" pace that the Fed is currently committed to.