Weekly technical outlook – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD [Video]

FOMC rate decision: EUR/USD

The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates. Investors have long been debating between a 25bps and a double 50bps rate cut, with the second option rising recently in popularity. However, Tuesday’s retail sales could still influence market sentiment as the odds remain very tight.

Expectations for a double rate cut in the US added extra fuel to EURUSD, lifting the pair as high as 1.1136 on Monday and keeping the medium-term uptrend intact. Last week, the price managed to avoid falling below 1.1000, but caution is still needed as the range of 1.1100-1.1140 poses a constraint. A decisive close above it could be necessary for a rally towards the August high of 1.1200.

BoJ rate decision: USD/JPY

After the shift from negative rates in March to a 15bps increase in July, central bankers in Japan are expected to maintain stable interest rates at 0.25%. Ever since then, the yen has gained considerable value as Japan’s monetary guidance pointed towards more rate hikes, while the rest of the world moved in the opposite direction.

USDJPY plummeted to a 14-month low of 139.56 today as monetary divergence led to the unwinding of carry trades. There might be more downside on the horizon as analysts anticipate another 10bps increase by the end of the year. If CPI inflation data surprise to the upside on Friday, staying in line with the BoJ’s forecast of 2.5%-3.0%, policymakers might signal readiness for another hike soon. In this case, USDJPY might tumble towards the 137.00-137.80 support region. A dovish tone by the Fed could add extra fuel to the sell-off.

Otherwise, a wait-and-see mode and uncertainty about the path of the economy could put the brakes on the USDJPY’s freefall, albeit temporarily. At the time being, the pair seems to be near oversold waters.

BoE rate decision: GBP/USD

The BoE’s policy decision is also on the agenda, due on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Analysts don’t expect any changes in interest rates following August’s 25 bps reduction, but Wednesday’s CPI data could provide some clarity.

If CPI figures arrive higher-than-expected, justifying the central bank’s cautious approach over rate cuts, GBPUSD might fight the tough resistance of 1.3200-1.3265 with scope to climb to 1.3340.

Alternatively, a pullback in CPI data could intensify talks for a rate cut during the policy meeting and perhaps urge the need for a move in November, if not this week. A negative correction in GBPUSD could initially test the 1.3100 round level and then the 1.3000-1.3100 region, a break of which could mark a new lower low around 1.2890.