Weekly Market Brief (Indices)

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6055 ( +28 or +0.46% )

The ASX is attempting to break out to higher prices. Will we see follow-through this week?

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Queen’s Birthday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6010 followed by a retest of 6070. Should this occur a strong break and close above 6070 may result in continued upside into 6140. A strong break above this level could see a strong move into 6206 by the week’s end.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6010, we will look for a move back down to 5985. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest 5921, and if downside momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move all the way back down into 5875.

EUROPE

DAX – 12791 (+40 or +0.31%)

The DAX spent the majority of last week in a volatile sideways range and the question is now do we go higher or lower from here? 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement 
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12921 followed by a retest of 13050. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13205, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13301.

If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12600 and 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a strong move to 12384.

 

US

SP500 – 2778 (+43 or +1.57)

The S&P rallied into one of our key levels at 2778 and struggled to break above this level. Can we break higher this week?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 04:00 – FED Interest Rate 
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Press Conference
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close and hold above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2785 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2802 and 2808, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2836.

If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2704; and a close below this level may result in a move down to 2680 and 2660.