INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX - 5899 ( +156 or +2.72% )
The ASX has staged a mini-recovery and is now at an important inflection point.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes
Wed 11:30 – Construction Workd Done (quarterly)
For a continued move higher, we must now see the ASX close and hold above 5921. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 5985. A break through this level could see a retest of 6000; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6140.
If ASX cannot hold above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5777, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see further moves down to 5746 and 5707.
EUROPE
DAX – 12486 ( +269 or +2.2% )
One up, one down. That was the story of last week for the DAX. This week will be a key week for this market yet again.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 19:30– German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Wed 19:30 – German Flash Services PMI
Thu 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
For a continued move to the upside, we must now see the DAX break and close above 12566. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12714. A strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly to 12783; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 12847.
If the DAX fails to close above 12566, we will loook for a move back down to 12384 before another pause. A close below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12198 and if momentum is very strong to the downside 12115.
US
SP500 – 2736 ( +114 or +4.35% )
The S&P continued to trade higher and for the second straight week the US continues to recover faster than other global equity markets.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Presidents Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – Existing Home Sales
Thu 06:00 - FOMC Minutes
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2774. A strong break and close above this level could see a retest of 2800, and if momentum remains strong to the upside 2812 and 2820 cannot be ruled out.
If we cannot hold above 2736, we will look for a move back down to 2700. A break below this level may result in a move down to 2660, and any continued weakness could see a further sell-off into 2628. If momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 2588.
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