Weekly Market Brief (Forex and Commodities)

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7668 ( -93 or -1.2% )

The Aussie Dollar failed to reach our important 0.7830 level and was consequently sold off aggressively on Thursday and Friday. 

NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday (Anzac Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)

For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.7729; followed by a retest of 0.7833.Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7903; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.7988 and 0.8033.

If we cannot close above 0.7729, we will be watching how this market reacts to 0.7662. A break below this level may see a quick move into 0.7620; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 and 0.7561 cannot be ruled out.

EUR/USD – 1.2287 ( -43 or -0.35% )

This week is an important week for the EURO.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Euro Flash Manufacturing PMI
Mon 18:00 – Euro Flash Services PMI
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement 
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.

GBP/USD – 1.4003 ( -235 or -1.65% )

The Pound’s third attempt at a breakout has proved to be unsuccessful and with four consecutive days of selling this market is becoming interesting.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Sat 00:00 – BoE Gov Carney Speaks

For a move to the upside we would like to see the GBP/USD close above 1.4075. Should this occur we may then see a move into 1.4194. However a strong break and close above 1.4194 could result in a quick move back up into 1.4305; and if momentum is very strong 1.4469 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot close above 1.4075 we will look for continued selling back down into 1.3875 before a pause. A strong break below this level may see Cable trade further down to the important 1.3743 – 1.3725 area; and if this level is breached WATCH OUT BELOW!

USD/JPY – 107.63 ( +27 or +0.25% )

The $/YEN is again attempting to break to the upside however struggling to break through 107.75.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 12:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market hold above 107.36, followed by a strong break and close above 107.75. Should this occur we could then see a quick move into 108.31. If momentum is very strong, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21 by the end of the week.

If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 107.36, we could see a move back down into 106.30 and subsequently 105.79. A break below this level could then see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1335 ( -10 or -0.74% )

Once again Gold continues to bounce in and out of our levels, having failed at 1355 and all but closing near our key 1333 level.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1374 and 1394.

If Gold cannot hold above 1333, we will look for a strong move back down into 1322. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we may see a sharp move down into 1294.