Weekly Market Brief (Forex and Commodities)

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7839 ( -73 or -0.92% )

The Aussie Dollar remains range bound and the question now is - can this market continue to move higher? 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex Expenditure (quarterly)

For a move higher, we must now see this market hold above 0.7903, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7934. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 0.7988. A strong break and close above 0.7988 could see this market post further gains into 0.8034.

If we cannot hold above 0.7903, we could see the AUD retest 0.7833. Should we break lower however, we will look for a move back into 0.7779 and if downside momentum continues we could see 0.7729 quickly before another pause.

EUR/USD – 1.2295 ( -115 or -0.93% )

Like other markets the EURO also continues through its sideways consolidation. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Wed 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2165 followed by a strong push into 1.2266. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2358; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2420.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.2165, we could see a move back down 1.2040 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.1929 this week. 

GBP/USD – 1.3969 ( -56 or -0.4% )

The Pound has spent the majority of last week fading into our key 1.3875 level and as such our levels remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Fri 20:30 – Construction PMI
Fri 21:00 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Fri TBC – UK PM Theresa May Speaks

For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.4075. A break above this level may result in movs into 1.4194, 1.4223, and 1.4259 before a pause. If we see a complete V-Reversal the GBP could rally all the way back into 1.4469.

On the downside, a strong break and close below 1.3853 could see a quick move down into 1.3743 - 1.3725 before a pause. If momentum to the downside continues, we may see moves into 1.3683 and 1.3654. A strong break below these levels could see cable trade down to 1.3510.

USD/JPY – 106.84 ( +55 or +0.52% )

The $/YEN is becoming very interesting. Can the buyers take hold of this market or will we see a significant move lower? 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – Bo Core CPI (annual)

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market hold above 106.30 and close above 107.75. Should this occur we will then be looking for a move into 108.31. A strong break and close above 109.21 could then see a quick move into 109.94 before a pause. If we are to see a complete V-reversal and fade to the upside this week, we will not rule out a move to 111.09 by the end of the week. 

If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 106.30, we will for a retest of 105.79. A break below this level could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause. Should we continue to trade lower and see continued downside pressure on the USD/JPY - a sharp move to 103.99 is possible. 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1328 ( -19 or -1.41% )

GOLD continues to trade inside a sideways range and this is setting up plenty of clues for future price action. 

For a continued move higher, we must now see this market break and close above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, a very strong move into 1374.

If Gold cannot close above 1333, we will look for a strong move back down into 1322. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1294.