Key points

  • USD: Biden’s withdrawal will bring dollar’s focus back on fundamentals.

  • JPY: BOJ rate hike bets and Fed’s rate cut, along with strategic intervention risks, could bring more gains.

  • GBP: UK’s political stability will be highlighted once again with US political risks escalating.

  • CAD: Another BOC rate cut could put CAD on the backfoot.

  • CNH: No sense of relief from reversal of Trump trades, as economic slowdown remains in focus.

fxsoriginal

The US dollar managed to end the week higher as Trump Trades ensued. Safe-havens CHF and JPY were also higher while activity currencies such as NOK and NZD underperformed.

Chart

Our FX Scorecard once again showed GBP topping the chart while NOK and NZD came in at the bottom amid downside inflation surprises.

Chart

The CFTC positioning data for the week of 16 July saw speculators cut the long positioning in US dollar by 33%. Longs were added to GBP, EUR and AUD, while shorts were covered in JPY. NZD long positioning was cut, and shorts were added in CAD and CHF.

Chart

Read the original analysis: Weekly FX chartbook: Election volatility and tech earnings take centre stage

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1300

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1300

EUR/USD remains under pressure on Thursday, maintaining its trade below the key 1.1300 support. The pair's pullback coincides with a rebound in the US Dollar, buoyed by stronger-than-expected businnes activity gauges in the US.

GBP/USD keeps its bullish stance above 1.3400

GBP/USD keeps its bullish stance above 1.3400

Encouraging prints from flash UK PMIs seem to be lending a hand to the British Pound on Thursday, motivating GBP/USD to stick to daily gains and extend its advance for yet another day beyond 1.3400 the figure.

 

Gold battles to retain the $3,300 mark

Gold battles to retain the $3,300 mark

Gold now seems to have embarked on a daly consolidative phase around the $3,300 mark per troy ounce amid the firm performance of the Greenback. However, a cautious market mood is helping to limit the downside for the precious metal.

Bitcoin celebrates annual Pizza Day with a new all-time high

Bitcoin celebrates annual Pizza Day with a new all-time high

Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts are celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day with a banger. BTC made a new all-time high on Wednesday and has entered price discovery mode. The OG cryptocurrency is trading above $110,000 for the first time ever.

FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious

FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious

Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025