Weekly COT Report

Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA CityIndex

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.

Traders were their most bullish on USD since December 2015, at $34.9bn ($39.6bn net-long against G10 currencies
JPY traders extended their net-short exposure to their most bearish level since December 2018
AUD traders were their most bearish since November 2018
NZD traders increased their bearish exposure at their fastest pace since September 2018

Despite extending their net-short exposure, JPY futures have continued to rise which could catch a lot of traders off-guard. Most notably, Trump’s trade tweet has seen JPY rally today which piles extra pressure on the bear-camp. It’s also worth noting that the extended bearish positioning has been achieved on lower volumes, driven mostly by a reduction of gross longs. This also brings into question the ‘bearishness’ of the net positioning as this is not a move of confidence.

Bears added 10.3k new short bets last week, dragging net-short exposure to its most bearish level this year. We don’t think positioning is yet at a sentiment extreme, and prices have crashed lower today in response to renewed trade tensions. Tomorrow’s RBA meeting could have a large impact on positioning. If they do cut, there’s still plenty of longs to be closed out.

Gold traders shed -28,2k short contracts, yet bulls added just 584k contracts
Sliver traders flipped to net-log after a 1-week hiatus net-short
Copper traders flipped to net-short
Platinum traders extended their net-long exposure to their most bullish level since March 2018

The increased net-long exposure last week was driven mostly by short covering, with -28.2k shorts closed (its largest short reduction since early December). With prices failing to break lower, we’re monitoring gold’s potential for a bullish wedge to develop.

Net-long exposure saw its largest weekly reduction since early February, ahead of further declines seen since last Tuesday. The move was driven by an increase of short bets (+16.9k contracts) and a reduction of longs (-6.4k contracts), which could point towards a deeper correction.

Author

Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA

CityIndex

Matt Simpson is a certified technical analyst who combines charts and fundamentals to generate trading themes.

GBP/USD bounces off four-day lows, still below 1.3500

GBP/USD sticks to the bearish tone on Thursday, coming down to the 1.3480 region in the latter part of the NA session. In the meantime, Cable’s weakness comes as investors continue to assess mixed UK data, poor US results, and the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1530

EUR/USD advances marginally, girating around the low-1.1500s on Thursday. Persistent uncertainty in the Middle East fuels risk aversion, limiting the US Dollar’s downside potential. Earlier in the day, both US Producer Prices and weekly Claims missed market consensus, adding to the buck’s soft tone.

Gold loses the grip, recedes toward $4,350

Gold extends its intraday pullback on Thursday, retesting the $4,350 zone per troy ounce, or three-day troughs. Meanwhile, the yellow metal continues to monitor developments from the Middle East as well as bets surrounding the potential Fed’s rate path.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP remain sluggish amid mixed ETF flows

The cryptocurrency market continues to trade sideways on Thursday, with Bitcoin struggling to reclaim the $64,000 level. Ethereum is attempting to build momentum near the key $1,900 resistance, while Ripple maintains support above $1.00, yet upward movement remains limited.

Week ahead – Summer lull could be tested by geopolitics and central bank expectations

US dollar stabilizes as September Fed hike bets remain subdued. Market volatility stays low, but thin liquidity could amplify movements. Key UK data could challenge pound strength; euro craves bullish catalysts.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.