Weekly column: The April 6th ultimatum and the return of the war trade

Review

“In a primetime address, Trump said the U.S. is going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”

He described the war as an investment in the future for Americans and suggested the military operation could end within a month.

Trump also said allies that depend on Middle East oil that shipped through the Strait of Hormuz—which Iran has effectively shut—should “go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.”

—By Ronnie Harui and Sherry Qin, “Oil Rises, Asian Equities Fall as Trump Signals Further Military Strikes on Iran,” The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2026.

Things do not appear to be going his way, particularly as the president turns to increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward both allies and adversaries. Ordinary Americans are feeling the pinch along with the rest of the world when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict continues to escalate and the administration fails to achieve its goals, a series of fundamental themes is likely to follow. Crude Oil prices will continue to increase, driving inflationary expectations higher and, consequently, pushing bond yields upward. In this environment, Gold and Silver may come under pressure as investors gravitate toward assets offering stronger yields, which, in turn, can push up the U.S. Dollar. At the same time, heightened uncertainty is likely to trigger a broader retreat from risk, leading to sell-offs across equity markets and cryptocurrencies alike.

Whilst we have seen a nice bounce in most equity markets, I remain skeptical about how high they will rally in the intermediate term, given the ongoing risk of escalation in the Middle East. The Nasdaq outperformed the S&P 500 and DJIA, rallying by over 6% following Trump’s announcement that negotiations with the Iranians are going well (before his speech above). The European markets fared better as they have been trying to distance themselves from the conflict. These markets found the bottom a week earlier, with the UK FTSE 100 rallying over 8% and the German DAX just under 7%.

The intermarket divergence was present in Asia too, with the Japanese Nikkei and India’s Nifty finding a bottom this week, whilst the Chinese SSE Composite found a bottom the prior week, and Australia’s ASX bottomed two weeks ago. Whilst the markets appear to have formed a primary cycle trough, they are not out of the longer-term bearish territory just yet. The picture is more dovish in the Americas, with the Argentinian Merval rallying over 20% from its low in early March, and the Brazilian Bovespa index rallying over 8% and poised to retest its ATH of late February. In South Africa, the JSE index has rallied by over 12% as well.

Gold and Silver both got a nice rally as heliocentric Mercury transits Sagittarius; however, it is still uncertain whether we have started a new primary cycle or remain within older bearish cycles. From the lows, Gold rallied 17% and Silver 25%, before reversing and giving back some of the gains on Thursday. The grains remain resilient amid geopolitical risks and disruptions to shipping and fertilizer supply. The crypto markets remain weak and continue within their bearish price channels.

Short-term geocosmics

Several markets appear to have formed their primary cycle troughs around the March 20–23 CRD, and others may be forming them at the current April 3–6 CRD. The CRD at the beginning of April should be expanded to April 2–6 due to the Easter weekend.

As we head into April, Mars will enter Aries on April 9 and will go on to translate the Saturn-Neptune conjunction between April 13 and 19. As the planet of warfare enters its own sign and reignites the Saturn-Neptune signature related to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, I anticipate further escalation. Therefore, look towards “the war trade”: a rally in Crude Oil and a sell-off in risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and equity markets during this period.

Longer-term thoughts and opinion

“The more challenging scenario for the United States, and one that is still a potential policy option, is to mount an invasion of Iran without an outrageous provocation, simply to eliminate Iran as a source of problems in the Middle East. In this situation, Washington would be effectively deciding to “go it alone” because it will be too difficult to create the circumstances that would result in any meaningful aid from other countries… To be blunt, Israel is probably the only country that would publicly support an American invasion of Iran.”

—Kenneth M. Pollack et al., “Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran” (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).

The policy paper quoted above, written in 2009, presented nine viable options for how any U.S. administration may choose to deal with Iran. The quote I have taken comes from Chapter 3, which is the most extreme option for using full force and invading Iran. Based on the current trajectory, this appears to be the option President Trump has opted for, in parallel with Chapter 5, “Leave it to Bibi: Allowing or Encouraging an Israeli Military Strike.” The authors warn that in the absence of an Iranian attack that produces mass American civilian casualties, the administration is going to have a significantly difficult task of justifying their decision and the costs to both the American public and the international community.

In the Forecast 2026 book, under the Spring Equinox Season section, I noted that “Mercury, the ruler of the chart, is prominently placed in the tenth house. This suggests that the nation’s identity is firmly bound to the executive and the public reputation of President Trump, who seeks visibility and decisive action. Mercury’s placement, however, suggests that miscalculations and miscommunications are likely, increasing the risk of escalation abroad and scandals at home. Such escalations may even be used as a tactic to divert attention from those scandals—a classic Mercurial display of showmanship.

Mercury is conjunct the North Node and applying to a conjunction with Mars (lord of the sixth house—the military). This configuration indicates an agitated leadership, prone to aggressive or rash decisions, confrontational diplomacy, and the initiation or threat of military action. The presence of the North Node suggests that this will be a highly fated and pivotal quarter for the United States. Taken together, these factors point to an ambitious but risky push by President Trump, involving executive actions that define the nation’s image. On the positive side, this could relate to technological investments in AI initiated by the White House; on the negative side, it could manifest as involvement in geopolitical conflict.”

Mercury was in Pisces, the sign of its fall and detriment. In the murky shadows of the Epstein scandal, a sudden war and rapid escalations followed. Based on the president’s comments, a degree of miscalculation may also have played a role. The United States finds itself isolated, and there is a clear lack of planning, which the policy papers warned against; “If the president can secure support, an invasion of Iran is a viable option. Without such support, the invasion and occupation of Iran would likely be as mismanaged and tragic as it was in Iraq from 2003 to 2006.”

Whilst the astrocartography map for the spring ingress also highlighted the Middle East, the main focal point is Greenland. Therefore, this leads me to believe that there will be further splintering in the NATO alliance and a real risk of escalation over Greenland during the coming three months. Images of the American president openly and distastefully mocking his closest European allies were not what I envisioned when I saw the Sun (Trump) in the eleventh house (Allies) in the spring ingress chart.

Yet the eleventh house is also the house of hope. In a world increasingly defined by tension and uncertainty, Easter reminds us of a deeper and enduring truth: that even in the darkest moments, renewal remains possible. As it is written, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God.” The message of Jesus of Nazareth was ultimately one of peace, love, and redemption, a message that feels especially vital today.

I wish you and your families a peaceful and blessed Easter, and I pray that the months ahead bring resolution, stability, and a path toward lasting peace, cooperation, and prosperity for the world. Do not underestimate the power of your prayers.