Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
The pair posted new 15-month low at 106.83 in Asian session on Wednesday, on eventual break through key med-term support at 107.31 (08 Sep low).
Fresh strength of yen was driven by overnight’s fall of Nikkei for over 1% as well as growing speculations that the Bank of Japan would follow world’s major central banks in attempts for normalizing monetary policy, despite the BoJ did not confirm such scenario.
Profit-taking caused quick bounce to 107.50, but move could be seen as positioning ahead of fresh push lower as bears remain firmly in play and eye next target at 106.51 (Fibo 61.8% of 98.99/118.66, Jun/Dec 2016 rally).
Firm break here would generate another strong bearish signal and would open way fur stronger bearish acceleration as there are no significant obstacles for bears until 103.60 zone.
Traders are focusing today’s key event, release of US inflation data, due later today. Stubbornly low inflation is one of main obstacles for Federal Reserve in attempts to increase the pace of interest rates hikes, as US economy shows solid growth and labor sector is also strong.
Inflation report would provide more clues about the pace of Fed’s raise of interest rates this year. Inflation in the US is forecasted to rise by 0.3% in January, compared to 0.1% increase previous month, while core CPI which excludes food and energy is forecasted at 0.2% in January, compared to 0.3% in December, which marks the highest level which hasn’t been broken since 2005.
Overall, forecasts are benign and signal no significant changes which could further weigh on the greenback.
However, stronger than expected inflation numbers in January would inflate dollar for stronger bounce from new lows.
Another important event today is release of US Retail Sales, which are, according to the forecast, expected to dip to 0.2% in January, compared to 0.4% in December 2017.
Weak retail sales would also add on dollar’s bears and influence interest rates outlook.
Res: 107.50; 108.00; 108.28; 108.88
Sup: 107.00; 106.83; 106.51; 106.00
Interested in USDJPY technicals? Check out the key levels
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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