Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair is attempting to break below narrowing range of past couple of days and probed below initial support at 112.00 for the first time since 26 Sep. Recent several attempts lower failed to break lower, but near-term action remains in red and holding at the edge, ahead of key support at 111.80 (200SMA). Sustained break here is needed for bears to take control and signal reversal after repeated upside failures above 113.00. Break below 200SMA would expose supports at 111.40 (30SMA) and 111.10 (100SMA/Fibo 38.2% of 107.31/113.43) which marks next trigger. Daily indicators are heading south with 14d momentum holding at the midline and showing scope for probe into negative territory which is supportive for further downside. Also, reversal pattern is forming on weekly chart and supports the notion. At the upside, 20SMA (112.35) marks initial resistance, followed by 10SMA (112.47) which is expected to cap upside attempts. Return above daily Tenkan-sen (112.64) and psychological 113.00 barrier would neutralize bearish threats and shift near-term bias higher. US data today would give more clues about near-term direction.
Res: 112.35; 112.47; 112.64; 113.00
Sup: 111.80; 111.40; 111.10; 110.70
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