USD/SEK analysis: How we pinpoint a perfect turning point

The USDSEK is one of the Forex pairs we analyze for Elliottwave-Forecast members in Group 2. It is considered an exotic pair that heavily relies on the U.S. Dollar’s path. In typical market conditions, we like to use the USDX as a guide for this pair.

Similar to the Dollar Index, USDSEK has been in a long-term bearish corrective path since September 2022. This pullback is meant to correct the preceding 5-wave impulsive cycle from January 2021 at minimum. This reflects a core principle of Elliott Wave Theory: a 3-wave correction follows a 5-wave trend.

Despite USDSEK reaching the extreme level of the September 2022 cycle, we continued to forecast lower prices. Why? Because the Dollar had not yet achieved the minimum target price to complete its cycle, and price action had not shown signs of a major recovery. As a result, we maintained a bullish bias on the Dollar across the board.

Accordingly, we looked for 3/7/11 swing bounces against the bearish sequence and sold from extremes. This has been our strategy for trading the Dollar since January 2025, when the third leg of the September 2022 cycle began. In June 2025, another corrective bounce started and lasted until August 1, 2025. We once again sold the Dollar from the extremes across markets.

From August 1, USDSEK completed a 5-wave decline on the shorter cycles. Then, beginning August 13, price started correcting that 5-wave decline, and we decided to take renewed interest in the pair.

USD/SEK, one-hour Asia ppdate – 8/20/2025

We shared the chart above with members on 20th August 2025 highlighting the short-term path. We expected the corrective bounce – wave 2 to finish soon. Afterwards, the pair should resume the year-long bearish path. We expect at least two more swings higher before the corrective bounce is complete.

USD/SEK, one-hour Asia update – 8/22/2025

We shared the chart above on 22nd August, 2025 when the corrective bounce was way more advanced. One more leg higher and then a likely sell-off would most follow, to finish wave 2 and begin wave 3 lower. In addition, we advised members to not enter long trades. Only look for shorts.

USD/SEK, one-hour Asia update – 8/26/2025

On the 26th August, we shared the chart above with members showing how price had reacted just as expected. Wave 2 finished with a diagonal wave (v) of ((c)) of 2 and sold off sharply. Despite the wide sell-off, the pair corrected higher. However, this follow-up update anticipated wave 3 to extend lower as wave 2 had already completed.

USD/SEK, one-hour Asia update – 8/29/2025

Price began wave ((iii)) of 3 as we had anticipated. We shared the chart above to members on 29th August, 2025 showing the sub-waves of wave ((iii)) as it develops. With these regular H1 updates ( four times daily), we ensure members are not lost in the market phobia and noises. Stay the course and reap the rewards.