USD rises on solid data, OPEC in focus

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Swissquote Bank Ltd

The US dollar is king after the third quarter GDP data has been revised up to 3.2% annualized from 2.9%; personal consumption in the US surged to 2.8% quarter-on-quarter from 2.1% previously. In addition, the US consumer confidence soared to 107.1 in November, from 98.6 a month earlier.

The USDJPY is better bid, as the waning month-end JPY demand is also favourable for attracting fresh longs into the market. The pair is expected to resume its rise toward the critical 105.00 level. The EURJPY extends gains above the hourly Ichimoku cloud (118.90-119.45), yet offers are presumed above the 120.00 level on the back of rising euro risks heading into the Italian referendum weekend.

Appetite in euro is limited on speculations regarding the upcoming Italian referendum. A ‘no’ vote could have severe implications for the Eurozone; hence traders will certainly avoid to take a directional position before the weekend. The EURUSD is expected to trade in a mean-reversion pattern, around its 200-hour moving average (1.0600). Large 1.0600-put is reported on Thursday expiry.

Failure to clear the 1.2530 resistance triggered a light correction in the GBPUSD. Intra-day supports are seen at 1.2450 (50, 100-hour moving averages) before the critical 1.2443 (major 38.2% retracement on Nov 18th to Nov 28th rise). Holding support at this level should encourage building fresh longs for a renewed attempt to 1.2585.

The AUDUSD extends gains through a well-defined ascending channel. Despite a broad-based USD demand, there is potential for a further rise to 0.7535 (channel top). Support is seen at 0.7446 (100-hour moving average) before 0.7440 (channel bottom).

Gold treads water a touch below the $1200 level, while oil markets are under pressure before OPEC reveals its decision on production today. Absence of agreement, or an unsatisfactory action, could accelerate a sell-off in oil markets, sending the barrel of WTI to $45, whereas a reasonable output cut could resume a renewed positive trend toward the $50/52 area.

Author

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Ipek Ozkardeskaya began her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked in HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients.

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